| January 2004 archive |
 |
|
1.30.2004 |
ART
The Cubs' official
site has a nice
profile of artist John Hanley, who has recently turned his
attention to painting portraits of sports stars:
John Hanley has been a Chicago Cubs fan all of his life and the 42-year-old
artist has taken his affection a few steps further, trying to capture the
team in his paintings.
Seeing Hanley's art online roused me to dig through some small portraits I
had done as a kid.
I began mucking around in portraiture when I was 12 or so, and I started for
exactly one reason: I was cheap. I wanted to send my baseball cards to my
favorite players to collect their autographs, but I was suspicious of the
U.S. Postal system, and thought the players themselves were suspect as well.
Not wanting to lose "valuable" cards in the mail, I drew portraits based on
the cards and sent those instead.
My likenesses often left a lot to be desired, but my efforts must have
charmed the players somewhat, as almost everyone sent my pictures back,
signed. A couple of my first drawings: (all thumbnails are clickable):
I was big into rookies at the time, and sent out pictures to the likes of
Palmeiro, Snyder, Danny Tartabull, and Matt Nokes. Of course, I was partial
to Cubs youngsters:
I sent the drawing above to Mark Grace first, hoping he'd open his mail in
the clubhouse and pass the picture on to Damon Berryhill and Palmeiro before
sending it back. No such luck. So when Gracie sent it back to me, I sent
it right back to the Cubs, this time addressing the envelope to Berryhill.
Berryhill was one of my favorite players at the time, and he included a short
note with the pic when responding. Receiving that letter from him was one
of the highlights of my youth.
Unfortunately, Palmeiro had been traded by the time I got the drawing back
from Damon. I didn't want to risk invoking Raffy's wrath by portraying him
in a Cubs uni, so I never sent it off to get that last autograph.
I got a few big stars to sign some things for me, but usually these players
had some sort of publicity machine in place -- my pictures of Nolan Ryan and
Dale Murphy were returned unsigned along with autographed head shots. I
remember being shocked when Jose Canseco actually sent my picture back. I
guess I thought he was a jerk even back then:
Shawon Dunston wasn't really one of my favorite players ... until he
returned my pic of him along with three
signed cards to add to my collection:
I rooted for the namesake of the Shawon-O-Meter for the rest of his career.
........................................
Fast forward 15 years. Last offseason, I decided to try my hand at
portraits once again. The subject? Who else, but Mark Prior. I didn't
know what to expect, assuming the charm of getting a drawing in the mail is
lessened when it isn't accompanied by a pleading note scribbled in a 13
year-old's handwriting.
As a happy ending to my tale, I got my sketch back from
Mark during spring training last year:
|
|
posted by alex at 09:40 AM | comments (5) |
|
1.29.2004 |
TADANO
As the AP reported two nights ago, Indians pitching prospect Kazuhito Tadano talked to the media regarding his past participation in a gay porn video:
Tadano took part in the video three years ago when he was a college student. Sitting in the Cleveland clubhouse Tuesday, the pitcher said he hoped to put his actions in the past.
"All of us have made mistakes in our lives," Tadano said, reading a statement in English. "Hopefully, you learn from them and move on."
Tadano's film history is not breaking news; he was profiled last September in Baseball America:
Tadano was one of the top college pitchers in Japan and had every expectation of being a high first-round pick in the 2002 draft.
But when the video was released in Japan prior to the 2002 draft, the word started getting out about Tadano's involvement in Japanese scouting circles. Japanese newspapers also alluded to a top prospect whose draft status was dropping because of his participation in a pornographic video.
...
"He should have been a top five pick over there," said a major league scout who requested anonymity. "He gets it up to 93-94 (mph) and he throws four different pitches for strikes."
Where other teams backed away, the Indians took a chance on Tadano, getting him at the bargain price of $67,000. It's paid off up to now, as Tadano rocketed from high Class A Kinston to Triple-A Buffalo, dominating two levels along the way.
The Indians are doing everything right. They are "re-breaking" this story now, several weeks before pitchers and catchers report to spring training, specifically because they think Tadano has a chance to break camp with the big-league club. By using this current dead period in baseball to allow Tadano to get his story out there, they are perhaps lessening the circus that will accompany the pitcher in the early going.
Not only is management on the ball, but the players throughout the system have been refreshingly supportive of Tadano.
Big-time prospect Grady Sizemore on Tadano's speech to the AA club last year: "You could tell he was nervous, ... [b]ut I don't think it changed anybody's opinion of him. After it was said and done, nobody thought anything more of it. He's a great guy and a great pitcher."
Major league staff ace C.C. Sabathia: "This is the right team and the right organization for him," Sabathia said. "We have good guys here. Everybody has done something that they regret in their lives. He's a person just like everyone else."
I applaud Cleveland and its players for taking a brave and unconditional stance of support for Tadano, and their openness is a promising sign for future gay baseball players.
It isn't all roses, though. Here's the lead in the AP report:
Indians minor leaguer Kazuhito Tadano is asking for forgiveness for what he called a one-time mistake -- his appearance in a gay porn video in which he engaged in a homosexual act.
Is the porn really the problem here? Or is it the subject matter? John Smallwood, in today's edition of the Philadelphia Daily News, makes the following astute observation:
Let's be honest, this is all about the possibility that Tadano could be gay. If Tadano had been in this video with a woman instead of another man, he probably would have some level of cult status in most locker rooms.
It certainly wouldn't be a threat to his career.
I can understand a person's instinct to distance themselves from a lurid past, though in truth I find little wrong with being in porn. Maybe I'm just new-fashioned when it comes to these things (Frenchie was robbed!). But Tadano wasn't apologizing for being in a sex tape; rather, he seeks atonement for having gay sex. Only once did I do this! Only because I was desperate for cash! A one-time mistake, I insist!
I don't apologize for who I am. Then again, I am gay, something Tadano maintains he is not. I'd claim Tadano only need apologize to viewers of his video, who were under the assumption they were watching guys go at it because those guys wanted to go at it. But I know that the gay porn industry is littered with straight actors, so Tadano's filmography isn't inconsistent with his identity. He was, for at least one day, gay for pay.
In the end, the story isn't about Tadano, and it isn't about porn. Gays in baseball is the theme, and with every passing month the topic is getting more heated. Gay players exist in the game right now. I'm sure many of their teammates know. And, sooner than we may think, the fans of the game will know who these guys are as well. 1947 is rapidly approaching, all over again.
Let's just hope that when that first player stands up and comes out, no apologies are necessary.
|
|
posted by alex at 12:14 PM | comments (1) |
|
1.27.2004 |
BASEBALL'S TOP 10 GAY ICONS
Enough with obscure analysis, enough with VORP and SNWAR, enough with scouring the ESPN news wires for morsels of a story; it's time for some fluff. And so I present this year's submission for baseball's top 10 gay icons.
Some of these guys are eye candy, some are pioneers, and some are Roberto Alomar. This isn't my list of who I think is hot in the game. This isn't a list of who is or isn't gay. It's just a list of some of the people both inside and outside of the game of baseball who have touched the gay community.
10. Ugueth Urbina
 The Gun Slinger sneaks onto this list after helping the Phlorida Phish to their second World Championship in the past seven years. My roommate (Engaged White Female) doesn't know his name, but repeatedly commented on Ugie's "sexy lips" throughout the playoffs. But for us gay folks, it was a kiss that sealed the deal. Treating your audience to almost nightly pecks on your catcher's cheek will bring all sorts of guns out of their holsters.
9. Mike Piazza
 Is he or isn't he? I know one thing for sure here at ball talk: he isn't. A natural blond, that is. So what if he dyes his hair, paints his fingernails, and hangs out with Alf? That's not reason enough to hold a press conference to declare a healthy hankerin' for womankind, is it? Some might say the lady doth protest too much...
8. Barry Zito
 Unconfirmed rumor: this free-thinking surfer dude is a big hit with the lesbians. Could this be due to an uncanny resemblance to the chick who sings "Constant Craving"?
7. Dave Pallone
 Pete Rose gave him a little push, and MLB gave him the boot, but Pallone took the final steps out of the closet all by himself. Outing himself in an autobiography published in 1990, Pallone has found a new career in diversity training. At least Pallone's moved on from the Rose incident; poor Pete appears to have kept up all his bad habits.
6. Roberto Alomar
 Alomar had a wee mustache in his youth, and later sported full-on beards, most notably tennis star Mary Pierce. So who was that gay Met that Valentine was supposedly trying to protect? Ladies-man Mike grabbed all the press, but here's thinking the man at the keystone was a better suspect.
5. Billy Bean
 No OBP-obsessed assistants. No Moneyball props. And no "e" in that last name. Baseball's other Billy B. spent his career in the closet, even playing in a game immediately following his first lover's death because he was too scared to ask for leave. Bean wasn't going to go through that again, and left a mediocre career in baseball to live with his boyfriend in Miami. He's the current Dean of Out Gay Professional Baseball Players. Not that he has any competition, being the only out player alive.
4. Glenn Burke
 If Bean is the Dean, then Burke is the Founding Father. Often credited for inventing the "high five" when greeting Dusty Baker at home plate following a Baker home run in 1977, Burke contributed a much greater good to society when he became the first former player to acknowledge his homosexuality in 1982. His career was over, and sadly his life soon spiraled out of control. Drug addiction, prison, and homelessness awaited this ground-breaker, who died of AIDS in 1995.
3. Brady Anderson
 The following three on this list are really a tie. They're all considered lookers; it's just a matter of your tastes.
Brady Anderson could walk down 23rd Street in Manhattan and no one would bat an eye. He simply is a Chelsea Boy. Whether he's really gay or not is another story, but I'll tell you this: if he had spent as much time working on his batting stroke as he did posing for photographers, his fluke 1996 season might not have looked so out of place with the rest of his career.
2. Ken Caminiti
 If you like stocky furballs, Caminiti is probably your cup of tea. One time I was chatting online with a potential date, and when I brought up my passion for baseball, he exclaimed, "I once saw Caminiti come onto the field after a game without his shirt on! I almost wet myself!" I am tall, lean, and the very opposite of hairy. Needless to say, the date never materialized.
1. Gabe Kapler
 Gabe, the Babe, is the definition of "Muscle Queen." Kapler is regularly featured in muscle mags -- several of which have a large gay following. Not only does he put his muscles on display, but he also apparently likes to show off his, ahem, other assets. And yet Gabe had this to say in an interview with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (AJC) last year:
AJC: Didja know you were a gay icon?
GK: No, really?
AJC: Yeah, you should check out www.outsports.com (a site for gay sports fans). You're very popular.
GK: That's funny . . . no, I did not know that.
The interviewer later said that Kapler's responses were not sarcastic; rather, he was either genuinely surprised or was feigning ignorance.
Dear Gabe,
When you do a nearly nude photo spread in which the only thing you wear is a pair of shorts so tight I can see veins, many people will think you are hot. Both women and men. But you know that already. You just need to embrace your status as 'icon' with us gay-lings.
Come march in our parades! Show up at our rallies! Make a guest appearance on Queer Eye!
And if you want to keep doing photo spreads, that's probably okay with us, too.
XOXO, Alex
|
|
posted by alex at 11:41 PM | comments (10) |
|
1.26.2004 |
NEYER ON THE NL CENTRAL
ESPN.com columnist Rob Neyer takes an interesting look at the NL Central today, asking the following question: who really is the class of the division?
Neyer concludes that the answer to this question is, quite simply, Houston, citing the Cubs' "luck" in 1-run games last year as an indicator that Chicago wasn't as good as its 2003 record indicates.
The Cubs were 27-17 in one-run games (in the National League, only the Giants were better), and the Cardinals were 14-25 in one-run games (only the Mets were worse). There is one, and only one, legitimate explanation for those one-run records, and that explanation is blind luck. I know many of you believe that one-run records are determined largely by bullpens and/or "chemistry," but there simply isn't any evidence that either of those plays a significant factor in one-run games. Last year in one-run games, the Tigers had a winning record (19-18) and the Braves had a losing record (17-25).
Neyer concludes that while the Cubs will enter 2004 an improved team, it likely won't be enough to offset both the inevitable decline in "luck" and the improvements the Astros have made to their rotation.
Runs scored and runs allowed? The Astros outscored their opponents by 123 runs in 2003 (edit: versus the Cubs 42), and since then they've added Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens to the roster. Yes, they've lost Billy Wagner, but they've also "lost" Geoff Blum, who probably cost the Astros a couple of games last season with his .295 on-base percentage in 123 games.
I tend to agree with Neyer's conclusions, though maybe not with the degree to which he makes them. Neyer points out that full seasons from Patterson, Lee, and A. Ramirez will improve the offense. Last year's third-base tandem of Bellhorn-Hernandez-Ramirez combined for a VORP (or Value Over Replacement Player, explained here) of 9.2 -- Aramis alone next year projects at 35.2. Karros-Simon-Choi last year were at 19.7, while Lee projects at 40.8. The Patterson-Lofton combo, on the other hand, combined for an Andrew Jones-esque 42.8 last year, while a Patterson-Hollandsworth tandem this year projects for a significant drop-off at 23.2. One place Neyer didn't look, though, was at the second-base platoon of Grudz-Walker, which if properly implemented could show a nice improvement at the keystone. To summarize the first three positions, though:
--------VORP-------
2003 2004 NET
3b 9.2 35.2 +26
1b 19.7 40.8 +21.1
cf 42.8 23.2 -19.6
---------------------------------------------
TOTAL +27.5
Adding 27.5 VORP, or the equivalent of almost 3 wins, is nothing to sneeze at, but by itself might not be enough for the Cubs to perch atop the division.
Neyer also remarks that the Cubs will be better "just getting Shawn Estes out of the rotation, no matter who takes his place". This, I would imagine, is self-evident to any Cubs fan, even the most casual. But again, a matter of degree:
--------VORP-------
Estes 2003 -19.8
Cruz 2004 11.6 (projected)
---------------------------
TOTAL +31.4
Adding about 3 wins by replacing one starter is simply astounding, and shows just how much the Cubs were hurt by Estes last year. And if Maddux chooses Cubbie blue, you can tack on yet another couple of projected wins.
Have the Cubs done enough to make up the difference in run differential between themselves and the hitting- and suddenly pitching-rich Astros? Probably not. But it may be a bit closer of a call than Neyer's article today makes it seem.
|
|
posted by alex at 07:40 PM | comments (6) |
|
1.22.2004 |
NEW FOR 2004: CLICKABLE HEADLINES!
That's right, you can now enjoy the pleasure of clicking on the headlines of my posts!
See each entry alone on the page!
Find a direct link to a column and send it to your friends!
|
|
posted by alex at 10:57 PM | comments (1) |
WHAT IS THIS STUFF, ANYWAY?
There's a useful little primer by Alan Schwarz on ESPN.com about several of the more mainstream stats that are bandied about by sabermetrician-types. I imagine most readers know all this stuff already, but some of my friends will occasionally stumble on here and have no idea what some of the acronyms that appear on these pages mean.
A couple notes:
- Regarding On-Base Percentage (OBP), Schwartz writes, "Of course OPS is better...". I don't know if this true; one of the main faults of OPS is that by simply adding together OBP with Slugging Percentage (SLG), it ends up heavily weighing SLG. There are some who think OBP is closer to being three times as important as SLG, so maybe O³PS would better than OBP alone.
- "Strikeout rate...Otherwise known as strikeouts per nine innings, one must look at this statistic to predict a pitcher's future performance." The Cubs rule this category, and it is perhaps one reason why Chicago's hurlers fare so well in the new series of PECOTA predictions.
- "Defensive efficiency...By that measure, Seattle...ranked best in baseball at .731." Baseball Prospectus to the rescue again, where James Click (subscription required) took a closer look at this stat and made some needed adjustments. Seattle ain't looking so pretty anymore...
|
|
posted by alex at 10:08 PM | comments (2) |
FANTASY STUFF
Seth Stohs over at seth speaks is running a series of player reviews for fans of fantasy baseball. It's worth checking out.
I play in a couple fantasy leagues myself every year, so I always like reading what others have to say regarding the potential of players. Anything to get a leg up.
And its always fun to come into the season well-prepared. I just love trudging into work in the morning during the season and watching all the straight dudes in my office's league hunch over their computers in disgust, stricken that their gay pal's team, ManOnMan, is once again dominating the competition...
|
|
posted by alex at 08:41 PM | comments (0) |
|
1.21.2004 |
A WHOLE LOT OF YUCK
The Cubs just signed Ryan Dempster to one-year deal with a club option for 2005.
Dempster, who along with Burnett is a poster boy for the Marlins' abuse of their pitchers in the old regime, hasn't been above average for 3 years now, and I don't think his future prognosis is very good, Tommy John surgery aside.
And this, without exception, is the most frightening quote I've seen this offseason:
Dempster is expected to replace Shawn Estes as Chicago's No. 5 starter, behind Kerry Wood, Mark Prior, Matt Clement and Carlos Zambrano.
Really? Last I heard, Dempster wasn't even going to be ready to pitch come the spring. Maybe injury guru Will Carroll will be able to shed some light on this. But if Dempster makes many starts this year for the Cubbies, it is sure to be b-a-a-a-a-a-d news.
UPDATE: Taking a look at the Cubs' team page on ESPN sets my mind at ease a bit:
The Cubs are taking a chance that Ryan Dempster will be as good as old. The Cubs and the right-hander agreed to a one-year contract Jan. 21 that includes a team option for 2005, a deal that guarantees him $500,000. Dempster had ligament replacement surgery on his elbow Aug. 4, and spent the final two months of last season on the Reds disabled list. It will probably be July or August before he's ready to pitch in the majors again, but that gives the Cubs time to see if he can return to the form that made him an All-Star in 2000. "You can never have enough pitching," said general manager Jim Hendry. "This just seems like a real solid gamble."
So Dempster is more of a Lieber project than an actual option for next year. But I don't know that Lieber is really a good comparison: while Dempster is still very young, he simply isn't very good.
|
|
posted by alex at 03:56 PM | comments (4) |
|
1.20.2004 |
FARNSWORTH STILL HASN'T SIGNED
It's a rare thing when the Cubs go to arbitration with a player. So rare, in fact, that neither Andy MacPhail nor Jim Hendry have ever done so.
They'll have to negotiate quickly if they want to keep their streak alive, however, since Kyle Farnsworth and the Cubs remain $600,000 apart in their contract negotiations.
I too am about that far apart in negotiations with my current employer. Somehow, I think Farns has a better chance of winning his case than I do...
|
|
posted by alex at 11:52 PM | comments (1) |
|
1.19.2004 |
WOOD'S WORTH: part four
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Part Four
Kerry Wood is now locked up next year for the nifty amount of $9.75 million. All reports say, though, that he's working with the Cubs on a multi-year deal to take him through his prime. How long should this contract be, and for how much?
We'll start by taking a look at Wood's 2004 salary as compared to some of his peers. I've weeded out a few of the contracts that are obvious albatrosses (Park, Hampton), as well as those for pitchers who are underpaid due to service time or brilliant Oakland GMs (Prior, Oswalt, Zito, Hudson, Mulder).
The following is a list of 2004 salaries based on the mean salary for the remainder of each player's contract. This increases Pettitte's number, for example, since his contract is so heavily back-loaded. Signing bonuses are also included, which is why Mussina's salary is higher than is normally listed. Numbers for Kevin Millwood (arbitration) and Greg Maddux (FA) are guesstimates.
2004 SALARY, IN MILLIONS
Mussina 18.00
Pedro 17.50
Johnson 16.00
Colon 12.75
Schilling 12.50
Morris 12.50
Millwood 11.50
Vazquez 11.25
Pettitte 10.50
Glavine 10.50
Wood 9.75
Schmidt 8.63
Nomo 8.00
Williams 8.00
Maddux 7.00
Garcia 6.88
Wolf 6.58
Escobar 4.69
Batista 4.37
Wood's salary fits in the middle of the group. But is his $9.75 million justified for next year? This is how these pitchers performed last year, sorted by Baseball Prospectus's Support-Neutral Wins Above Replacement-level (SNWAR), the number of wins above what a replacement-level (i.e. AAA player) pitcher would receive in the same number of decisions.
2003 SNWAR
Pedro 7.50
Schmidt 6.50
Vazquez 5.60
Schilling 5.30
Mussina 4.80
Wood 4.70
Colon 4.50
Nomo 3.90
Batista 3.80
Maddux 3.40
Williams 2.90
Escobar 2.80
Millwood 2.60
Pettitte 2.60
Morris 2.30
Garcia 2.20
Johnson 2.00
Glavine 1.80
Wolf 1.80
Wood outperformed Colon, Pettitte, Millwood, Glavine, Johnson, and Morris last year -- all four of whom have a higher mean salary next year. In fact, the only person on the list who will get paid less than Wood while having outperformed him last year is Jason Schmidt, who has some significant injury concerns coming into the 2004 season.
Based on last year's performance, Wood looks like a slight bargain. What do projection systems think he'll do next year? Fantasy Guru Ron Shandler's forecasting tools, available via subscription at BaseballHQ.com, are designed to give fantasy baseball players a leg up, but he also projects general effectiveness. Since BaseballHQ is a pay site, and I don't want to pass along any of the oodles of interesting specifics the site provides, I've translated BaseballHQ's performance expectations for 2004 by creating a generic "grade" for each of the players in the group. (Note: this isn't a grade based on their fantasy value, but on their performance level; a fantasy ordering would be rather different.)
Pedro A+
Schmidt A+
Vazquez A
Schilling A-
Mussina A-
Wood A-
Colon B+
Millwood B
Maddux C+
Johnson C+
Batista C
Morris C
Nomo D+
Williams D+
Escobar D+
Garcia D
Pettitte D-
Glavine F
Wolf F
Shandler expects good things from Wood, and expects Wood to once again outperform Colon, Millwood, Glavine, Johnson, Morris, and Pettitte (sorry Houston, Andy isn't as good as you think). In fact, Wood grades out at the level of Mussina and Schilling, both of whom will be making a great deal more than Kerry next year.
And how about for the years beyond 2004? How much should the Cubs offer Wood?
I'm going to assume that the Cubs will negotiate three additional years, securing Wood through the 2007 season. Before the 2003 season began, Baseball Prospectus posted its accurate PECOTA system, which predicts future performance over the course of five years. It is important to keep in mind that these predictions do not take into account the 2003 season (the 2004 version is due very soon). I've taken the mean of the 3-year projections of "Wins" for 2005-2007. You can think of "Wins" in roughly the same way the chart above showed "SNWAR".
Pedro 6.43
Schilling 4.40
Vazquez 3.73
Johnson 3.53
Mussina 3.20
Wolf 3.07
Colon 3.03
Wood 3.00
Millwood 2.80
Garcia 2.80
Morris 2.73
Maddux 2.40
Schmidt 2.23
Pettitte 2.10
Nomo 1.60
Escobar 1.27
Glavine 1.03
Williams 0.87
Batista 0.50
Of the players here, you can probably assume that the updated PECOTA cards will have more positive projections for Schmidt, Escobar, and Batista, with a steep decline for Wolf and Garcia. I also think it is likely that Wood's numbers will be a bit higher in the 2004 cards, since he rather handily outperformed his 2003 PECOTA projection.
Still, I think the projections are pretty clear. Looking at his immediate peer group, Wood is worth about as much as Colon, more than Millwood, Morris, and Pettitte, and less than Vazquez.
This, of course, provides a bit of a quandary in setting a dollar amount on Wood, since Colon, Morris, and (likely) Millwood will all be making more than Vazquez, who it is now clear signed his extension with the Yankees for below-market. Do we look at Colon's largesse as a standard, or Vazquez's?
I went into this series thinking that I'd likely conclude Wood is worth about $9 million a year, but I now see that I was underestimating his contributions. A contract giving Wood $11 million annually, a notch below Vazquez's "inexpensive" contract and a notch below Colon's "fat" one, is probably more realistic and a more accurate reflection of Wood's true value. That said, I won't flinch if he signs for a bit less, or even if he ends up signing a Colon-like deal.
So here you are, Kid K. How does $33 million sound?
|
|
posted by alex at 07:50 PM | comments (0) |
LEE AVOIDS ARBITRATION
Derrek Lee has signed a $6.9 million, one-year contract to avoid arbitration.
The AP reports that they're working on a multi-year deal:
He and the Cubs are expected to negotiate a longterm deal. Lee made $4.25 million last season.
"Chicago, you can't ask for better place to play baseball," Lee said right after the trade. "It's a real good situation."
|
|
posted by alex at 03:06 PM | comments (0) |
|
1.16.2004 |
WOOD'S WORTH: part three
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Part Four
Okay, so this really isn't part three, per se. That's coming shortly.
But we do know what Wood is worth to the Cubs for the 2004 season: 9.75 million.
That's a lot of money, and I while I don't think it is too much based on Wood's ability and performance record, I would have liked to see a long-term deal that began with a lower salary the first year and worked its way up from there.
The Cubs and Wood are still working on the long-term deal, though, so I'll take a look at what Wood and the Cubs should be looking for shortly.
|
|
posted by alex at 06:36 PM | comments (3) |
LITTLE AND ROCK
Notes:
The Cubs have added Grady Little to their front office. Grady likely has some good karma on his side after being dumped by the Sox. Just don't let him advise Baker on when to pull Prior in a playoff game.
In more heart-warming news, the Expos have named Tim Raines manager of their class A team, the Brevard County Manatees.
Raines has always been one of my absolute favorite players, so I'm happy to see him starting a new career in baseball. Hopefully Raines can pass along his mad skills to his new trainees, and you have to like his answer to the following interviewer's question:
FT: Besides establishing a strong running game, what other philosophies will guide you as a first-time manager?
TR: To me, on-base percentage is very important. Not making mistakes. Good defense. Not beating yourself. Playing smart. All those things. Class A ball is the perfect time to start teaching these guys the game and playing the game the right way, not just throwing, catching, hitting and running. You've got to have an idea of what you're doing in situations. Twenty-three years in the major leagues, you see a lot of things. I don't think there's much to the game I haven't seen.
|
|
posted by alex at 04:07 PM | comments (0) |
|
1.15.2004 |
BOROWSKI SIGNS 2-YEAR EXTENSION
Of all relievers in the majors who have posted at least 30 saves total in the past two years, Joe Borowski ranked in the top ten in the following categories:
ERA
Baserunners/9 IP
K/9
W/9
K/BB ratio
Innings Pitched
And if you're a fan of things like Lee Sinins' RSAA, Borowski ranks 7th among his 30-save crowd, placing a few runs behind Rivera and Smoltz, and just ahead of Guardado and Urbina.
Now take a look at the salaries that his Closer Cohorts will be making next year:
Smoltz 11
Rivera 10.89
Nen 8.6
Isringhausen 8.5
Wagner 8
Sasaki 8
Percival 7.5
Foulke 7
Mantei 6.75
Guardado 4
Benitez 3.5
Looper 3
Worrell 2.75
--BOROWSKI-- 2
Gagne arbitration
Borowski isn't as good as the elite from this group, but he's at about Guardado or Worrell level - both of whom are being payed more than JoBo despite losing their respective 'closer' tags. I'd also rather have Joe on my team next year than Nen, Izzy, Sasaki, or Mantei, all of whom are injury risks, and all of whom are getting paid three to four times what Joe will get next year.
So when compared to his peers, the Cubs have locked up their 'proven closer' for far below market value. Granted, his 2 mil next year is more than I anticipated he'd get through arbitration, but I was probably drastically underestimating what he'd reap in court.
Of course, this leaves aside the question: is using Borowski as the closer the best use of his ability, when he shown that he can ably pitch two innings plus of solid relief? The answer is, probably not. But Dusty will likely be more comfortable slotting JoBo in for the ninth inning, and I was encouraged to see Baker use Borowski for longer stints in the playoffs last year, where Joe's contributions are magnified.
Congrats, Joe. You're making money well-earned, and have had a long journey to get here.
|
|
posted by alex at 08:52 PM | comments (2) |
|
1.13.2004 |
WOOD'S WORTH: part two
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Part Four
Before comparing Kerry Wood to some of his contemporaries, I thought I'd take a look back at some Wood-like pitchers in baseball history, to see where their careers took them. While all of these pitchers showed up on Kerry's various similarity indices, I think each player's story is just as interesting as his pitching kinship to Wood.
Stan Williams
In the 2002 version of Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA cards, Williams is listed as Wood's most comparable player in baseball history. An effective but wild rightie, Williams was likely burned out by the time he was 26, having pitched over a thousand innings. Stan had always had high strikeout-rates accompanied with high walk-rates, but even at age 25 the warning signs were clear, as high k-rate dropped precipitously to the unremarkable rate of 5.24/9 IP.
Williams missed most of the 1965 season, and missed the next year altogether, returning at age 30 to become a true swingman for the Cleveland Indians. His control improved, though it didn't make him any more effective than he had been before his layoff. In 1968, he provided the Indians with the following nifty season -- a line that would be unthinkable in today's game:
W L G GS CG SV IP BB SO ERA
13 11 44 24 6 9 194.3 51 147 2.95
Williams would have a couple more effective seasons out of the 'pen, before finally hanging things up at the age of 35.
I think Williams presents the worst-case scenario for Wood. If Wood were to suffer a major injury in the next few years that would severely limit his abilities, he wouldn't necessarily be out of baseball. Rather, he'd move to the bullpen, and ply his trade there, in hopes that he could become the next Isringhausen or even Smoltz.
But so far, so good. Wood didn't have the sudden dropoff around ages 25-26 that Williams had; rather, Wood has gotten better at each of those ages. And Wood already suffered a major career-threatening injury, but modern science has put him back together again. Williams' early years echoed those of Wood's, but I doubt we'll see him listed as one of Wood's comparables in the 2004 versions of the PECOTA cards, due out in the next few weeks.
Herb Score
Herb Score's story is familiar to many fans. The definition of phenom, Score slung balls from his left hand this way and that in 1955, his debut season. Where the ball would end up once leaving Score's maw was anyone's guess. That rookie year, Score allowed only 158 hits in 227.3 innings, and struck out a rookie record 245 batters, a record later broken by Doc Gooden. But he also walked 154 batters. 154! His control improved some the next season, but he was still as wild as he was unhittable. And effective: his first two years in the big leagues, he posted ERAs of 2.85 and 2.53.
1957 started for Score like his first two years. He was a maniac, walking everyone, striking out everyone, and allowing only 18 hits in his first 36 innings. Then, as related in BaseballLibrary.com, came the moment that changed his career:
On May 7, 1957 at Cleveland's Municipal Stadium, Gil McDougald hit a line drive that struck Score in the eye and ended his season. Questions were raised in the aftermath of the bloody scene as to whether Score would ever see properly again. He made a partial comeback in 1958, and pitched a full season in 1959. Perhaps it was the layoff or fear or loss of vision; whatever the reason, he was no longer unhittable, despite retaining a fine ratio of strikeouts to innings pitched.
In Part I on Wood's Worth, I noted how Wood was 3rd in history in K/9 and 2nd in hits/9 for all pitchers having thrown 900 career innings. If we reduce that qualifying number to just 850, there is one more name added to the leaderboards:
HITS/9 IP DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Pedro Martinez 2.53 6.72 9.25
2 Herb Score 2.42 6.39 8.80
3 Kerry Wood 2.41 6.75 9.16
4 Nolan Ryan 2.20 6.56 8.76
5 Randy Johnson 2.08 7.02 9.10
STRIKEOUTS/9 IP DIFF PLAYER LEAGUE
1 Randy Johnson 4.91 11.16 6.25
2 Nolan Ryan 4.22 9.55 5.32
3 Kerry Wood 4.07 10.62 6.55
4 Pedro Martinez 4.03 10.50 6.47
5 Herb Score 3.97 8.78 4.81
For Herb Score, it will always be a question of what could have been. Perhaps, just maybe, in another 15 years we'll be able to look back on Wood's career and notice that he finished what Score started.
Sam McDowell
Of all historical comps for Wood, Sudden Sam is my favorite. Like Herb Score, McDowell was another terrifying lefty, regularly leading the league in both strikeouts and walks. His 1965 season, posted at the tender age of 22, was a doozie:
IP HITS BB SO ERA
273 178 132 325 2.18
Despite throwing a ridiculously huge number of innings through the age of 26 (1617 innings), McDowell firmly believed that it wasn't overuse that shortly thereafter ended his career. BaseballLibrary.com again fills in the story:
His biggest problem was not batters. "I was the biggest, most hopeless, and most violent drunk in baseball," McDowell would admit later. He won only 13 games in 1971, walking a career-high 153, as his drinking began to affect his on-field performance. He was traded to the Giants for 1972, winning 10 games for the last time. He finished in the Pirates' bullpen in 1975.
McDowell left baseball with 2,453 strikeouts to his name, and even more "what ifs". McDowell's addition began affecting his performance by age 28, so he too, like Score and Williams before him, fails to adequately outline the potential in Kerry Wood's future.
So what to do? The stories of Williams, Score, and McDowell all are stories of potential unfulfilled. They're interesting in their own right, but they provide only a warning that pitching stardom can be derailed by a multitude of reasons.
There is one more historical name to mention, though. The anti-McDowell, if you will, a pitcher whose career was seemingly unstoppable, who never was beaten by a line drive to the head or an urge to drink, and who has been mentioned more times in association with Kerry Wood than any other:
Nolan Ryan
Ryan's first six full seasons:
YEAR TEAM AGE W L IP H BB SO ERA
1968 Mets 21 6 9 134 93 75 133 3.09
1969 Mets 22 6 3 89.1 60 53 92 3.53
1970 Mets 23 7 11 131.2 86 97 125 3.42
1971 Mets 24 10 14 152 125 116 137 3.97
1972 Angels 25 19 16 284 166 157 329 2.28
1973 Angels 26 21 16 326 238 162 383 2.87
Wood and Ryan currently don't appear on any similarity lists together, and they shouldn't. They were used in very different ways up to this point in their careers. Ryan was used conservatively until he turned 25, while Wood was overworked as a 21-year-old rookie. But there are still the obvious similarities. The imposing fastball. The wild but unhittable pitches. The Texas roots. But beyond the surface impressions, are the two really that similar?
For one thing, Ryan's control was much worse than Wood's. Ryan's BB/9 his first four seasons were horrific: 5.04, 5.34, 6.63, and 6.87. Wood's haven't been great, but he's generally been around 4.5/9 in his career, and has bettered that the last two years. This year, Kerry posted the second-best K/BB ratio of his career - a mark of 2.66. Ryan didn't post a ratio better than that until he was 37.
The last point, of course, is the stickler. Kerry Wood isn't comparable to Nolan Ryan because no one in the history of the sport is comparable to Nolan Ryan. Ryan wasn't a great pitcher because he struck out everyone in sight. Ryan was an insane walk-and-strikeout machine who pitched, and pitched well, until he was almost a layman's retirement age. That's why he was great. Not until Kerry Wood has a 2.76 ERA with 270 strikeouts in 211 innings at age 40 will he be comparable to Nolan Ryan.
And that's a long time to wait to see if Wood is worth the contract that Hendry is negotiating this week.
And so we're left without much of a historical context in which to view Wood's future. But that's okay. With the newfound powers of statistical forecasting, I'll take a look at what a few people are projecting Kerry to do in the next year and beyond in my next Wood article. And Kerry, duck when you see a line drive at your head, stay off the booze, and maybe we can have this same tour through history when you're negotiating your final Cubs contract in 2017.
|
|
posted by alex at 11:59 PM | comments (1) |
|
1.12.2004 |
BAD NEWS FOR CUBS, GOOD NEWS FOR CUBS FANS
In a move that adds depth, star-power, and goodness, the Astros appear to have signed Roger Clemens to a one-year contract.
The Cubs still have the best rotation in the division, but the margins are a lot slimmer -- Clemens may be old, but he's still pretty darn good. In fact, he immediately becomes the co-ace (with Oswalt) that everyone was incorrectly claiming Pettitte was going to be.
How is this good news for Cubs fans? How about these four pretty words:
Clemens-Wood
Clemens-Prior
It's shaping up to be a fun year.
|
|
posted by alex at 01:41 PM | comments (1) |
|
1.11.2004 |
WOOD'S WORTH: part one
Part One
Part Two
Part Three
Part Four
May 1998 saw me in Thailand, where I was eating, drinking, and carousing my way through a year-long stint as a teacher in the northern city of Chiang Mai. News from the U.S. was available but scant, and baseball news almost nonexistent. So it wasn't for several weeks that I heard that the Cubs' young whipper-snapper Kerry Wood had thrown a 20-strikeout gem against the Astros. The news, when it reached me, had me beaming across the Pacific.
Wood's game stands as one of the most, if not the most, dominant pitching performances in baseball history, and yet Wood also suffers from this outing, a victim to the shadow cast by his great rookie outing. There are whispers of unfulfilled potential, a desire for Wood's career to mimic that May afternoon -- for every outing to be the Greatest Performance. In Cubbie-ville, Wood has somehow, to this point, fallen short.
This is nonsense. As he now stands, Wood is clearly one of the elite 20 or so pitchers in the game today. And he is, in fact, already a historically significant figure in MLB history:
STRIKEOUT/9 IP vs LEAGUE AVERAGE, 900 IP MINIMUM
-name- -diff- -player- -league-
1 Randy Johnson 4.91 11.16 6.25
2 Nolan Ryan 4.22 9.55 5.32
3 Kerry Wood 4.07 10.62 6.55
4 Pedro Martinez 4.03 10.50 6.47
5 Sandy Koufax 3.76 9.27 5.51
6 Rube Waddell 3.54 7.04 3.50
7 J.R. Richard 3.43 8.37 4.94
8 Dazzy Vance 3.25 6.20 2.96
9 Lee Smith 3.13 8.73 5.61
10 Sam McDowell 3.12 8.86 5.74
HITS/9 IP vs LEAGUE AVERAGE, 900 IP MINIMUM
-name- -diff- -player- -league-
1 Pedro Martinez 2.53 6.72 9.25
2 Kerry Wood 2.41 6.75 9.16
3 Nolan Ryan 2.20 6.56 8.76
4 Randy Johnson 2.08 7.02 9.10
5 Sid Fernandez 2.03 6.85 8.89
6 J.R. Richard 2.00 6.88 8.87
7 Amos Rusie 1.86 8.08 9.94
8 Sandy Koufax 1.81 6.79 8.60
9 Cy Seymour 1.75 8.32 10.07
10 Mike Jackson 1.69 7.32 9.01
One of the hardest pitchers to hit in the history of the game, Wood is coming off his best year yet, and he's only now beginning his prime. But how much is his prime worth? This is a question the Cubs' management is currently trying to answer, as they look to extend Wood's stay in Chicago for at least a few more years.
Being historically significant is one thing, but being historically great is another. And Wood's not there yet. For all his dominance and unhittableness, Wood still has his flaws. Like Nolan Ryan before him, Wood's control is poor. Much of the good done by being hard to hit is undone when you walk 100 batters and lead the world in batters hit (21). Wood's wildness has yet to significantly improve in a season, and in fact regressed last year after Wood posted the lowest walk rate of his career in 2002. An improvement in this area would have a dramatic effect on Wood's pitching, transforming him from a top-20 pitcher into Bob Gibson incarnate.
What can be expected from Wood in the future? It's hard to know, indeed perhaps harder to know than usual for a pitcher. Wood's similarity indices on both Baseball Prospectus and Baseball-Reference.com aren't particularly high, as Wood's extreme k-, hit-, and walk-rates make him a fairly unique pitcher. In my next Wood article, I'll take a look at Wood as compared to a couple old-timers, to see if we can glean any trends for Wood's future. This might make it easier to look at Wood's worth in light of current contracts and offers being afforded Bartolo Colon, Javier Vazquez, Kevin Millwood, and Andy Pettitte.
|
|
posted by alex at 01:57 PM | comments (1) |
BEAR CUBS
Peter Gammons, or as my snarky friend refers to him, Pyotr Gammons, Esq., has an interesting article today on some teams that have made huge leaps forward in the offseason. He actually excludes the Cubs from the list, but not because he thinks they haven't improved. Rather, he thinks that the Cubs, along with the Phillies, are the consensus favorites in the NL due to their moves:
The consensus of opinion among general managers is that the Cubs and the Phillies are approaching the Ides of January as the pre-spring training favorites in the National League, the (surprise, surprise!) Yankees and Red Sox in the American.
This type of talk takes quite a bit of getting used to. Not since 1985 have I heard the Cubs being the favorites to do anything other than draw big crowds.
And to tell you the truth, I don't know if it is completely warranted. This Cubs team has certainly improved both its offense (with Lee, Walker and a full season of Aramis) and its bullpen (adding LaTroy, subtracting Alf), and the "loss" of Estes improves the rotation no matter who is the fifth starter. But the Astros only finished one game behind the Cubs, had a better record according to Pythagorean standings, have a better offense than the Cubs, and with the looming signing of Clemens will have a rotation that matches up with anyone.
I like that the Cubs are considered a strong team, and I think that they should be. I'm just not comfortable labeling them as favorites -- not when they might not be the best team in their own division...
|
|
posted by alex at 12:02 PM | comments (1) |
|
1.7.2004 |
UPDATE TO RYNO'S HOF CHANCES
I wrote yesterday that I thought every player who had received at least 60% of the vote in any year had gotten into the Hall of Fame, with the exception of Jim Rice. Well, I was doubly wrong: Rice has never received 60% of the vote, and there is one player who three times received over 60% of the vote and still isn't in Cooperstown: Gil Hodges.
Still, every other player who has received at least 60% of the vote in a given year has made it into the Hall either by the writers (as I think will be the case with Ryno) or by the Veteran's Committee. In fact, only four players in baseball history aren't in the Hall after having received 50% of the vote in a year. One of the four is Hodges, and the other three are still on the ballot: Rice, Sutter, and Dawson.
|
|
posted by alex at 11:25 PM | comments (0) |
A REAL LIFE GOLLUM
My least favorite topic, by far, in the world of baseball is Pete Rose. And I have no interest in writing anything substantial about the filthy, stinkin', sneaking, liar liar liar.
But I do think all this furur about his "lack of contrition" is pretty funny. Mike Schmidt had some things to say about Pete today, including this gem:
"I still think he has a chance to save it. He'll have his chance on Friday in front of the public, and let's hope the real Pete comes out, a remorseful Pete."
Given Pete's established propensity for saying and doing whatever he thinks the public wants to hear, is there really any doubt that in the next few weeks we're going to hear a stream of "sorry"s and "regret"s coming from Monsieur Rose -- that Pete is going to do everything in his power to look as contrite as we want him to be?
|
|
posted by alex at 10:50 PM | comments (1) |
|
1.6.2004 |
NO HALL CALL FOR RYNO
As expected, Ryne Sandberg fell in today's Hall of Fame vote announcement, with Eckersley and Molitor making it in fairly easily.
While disappointing to Ryno's fans, the good news is that his vote totals rose over 10 points to 61.1%. I might be wrong, but I think I remember that every player, with the exception of Jim Rice, who has received over 60% of the vote in any year has made it into the Hall. I'll have to look that one up.
It's pretty clear now, at least, that Sandberg will eventually get elected. I doubt next year would be the year, but I think 2006, when there are no viable newcomers to the ballot, will be his year.
|
|
posted by alex at 02:23 PM | comments (1) |
|
1.5.2004 |
CRUZ AGAIN
Juan Cruz continues to dominate in the D.R., this time in the Dominican Winter League Playoffs:
TM PITCHERS IP H R ER BB K ERA
CHC J.Cruz 6.2 2 0 0 2 4 0.00
|
|
posted by alex at 02:21 PM | comments (2) |
INTERNET HALL OF FAME
Baseball Prospectus just posted the 2004 voting results for the Internet Hall of Fame, a mock vote that concludes before the real results are known.
I'm happy to report that the six top vote-getters were the same six that I listed on my ballot a couple days ago. Unfortunately, only Eck and Molitor got in - the other four fell short by either a small margin (Blyleven) or large margin (Trammell).
The IHOF voting results usually are a bit better than the actual writers, and I suspect the same will be true this year - Blyleven doesn't have a prayer of getting close to the 70% he got with Internet voters in the real vote.
And while I know I'm preaching to the choir in this blog, I just don't understand how 30% of voters can think Sandberg doesn't belong in the Hall. It's just a cryin' shame, what voters think of Cubs infielders.
Official results tomorrow. My guess? Molitor's a shoo-in, and I think Eck gets in as well. No one else will come particularly close.
|
|
posted by alex at 12:07 PM | comments (1) |
|
1.2.2004 |
A YOUNGER PATTERSON
Eric Patterson, Corey's younger brother, was just named to Baseball America's first team in their preseason rankings of college players.
Eric is not an outfielder, like his brother, but plays second base. He's also played some short for Team USA in the past. In September, BA had this to say about him:
His plus speed and bloodlines (his older brother is Corey) will keep him high on draft boards, but his swing needs work to incorporate his lower half.
Oh, and happy new year!
|
|
posted by alex at 05:50 PM | comments (0) |
|
|
|
