| November 2003 archive |
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11.30.2003 |
THE 2004 CUBS, PART I: WHO IS HERE
Jim Hendry is already moving quickly to make over the Cubs, so I'm going to have to get in my "GM for a day" comments with equal speed. I'll try to spend time this week going over my ideas for what the Chicago braintrust should do this offseason.
It all starts with a budget, and I'm figuring the Cubs' budget will be between $85-90 million next year. It'll be difficult, but I'll try to keep my budget closer to 85 million. As far as salaries, I'll use the guesstimates provided by the Cub Reporter, found here.
In building the team, we'll begin with players on the 40-man roster who, as of today, would certainly start the season with the team:
PLAYER 2004 SALARY (estimated)
:pitchers:
Borowski .800
Clement 6.000
Farnsworth 1.200
Prior 2.100
Remlinger 3.550
Wood 10.000
Zambrano 1.000
:catchers:
Bako .900
Miller 3.000
:infielders:
Lee 6.500
A-Gonz 5.500
Martinez 1.500
Ramirez 6.000
Simon 2.000
:outfielders:
Alou 9.500
Patterson .600
Sosa 16.000
TOTAL 76.550
One obvious move that I would make, and that I think the Cubs will make as well, will be to non-tender Randall Simon. Simon is overrated and will be expensive, so cutting him immediately lowers the salary total to $74.550 million.
As far as tradeable players, I think the Cubs have six guys who are reasonable to consider as bait, for various reasons:
1) Juan Cruz. This is the obvious guy to move. Young, talented, inexpensive, and without a role. The Cubs have likely waited too long to get full value for Cruz, but he's the juiciest morcel on the current roster.
2) Kyle Farnsworth. I imagine this is someone a lot of teams would like to have, but I think the Cubs would be wise to hold onto him, as getting his level of performance from the free agent market will cost much more than his estimated 1.2 million.
3) Matt Clement. Only if the deal is right, by which I mean only if the Cubs get back a star player or get major-league ready talent at no cost.
4) Kerry Wood. Only as a centerpiece in a blockbuster, and only if negotiations for a contract extension appear to be going sour.
5) Damian Miller. Feasible as part of a mutual salary dump.
6) Alex Gonzalez. Other than Alou, this is the most unmoveable piece for the Cubs, so this would have to be part of a mutual dump deal.
I think, realistically, only Cruz will leave, but trades involving some of the other other players on this list would likely involve some bold strokes that could really transform the Cubs. I know I'm way off in la-la land, but if I were Hendry, I'd try to get in on any maneuverings between Boston and Texas this offseason. Imagine a three-way trade where the Cubs send Clement to Boston and A-Gonz with pitching prospects to Texas, while Manny and A-Rod switch places, and the Cubs land Nomar.
Ok, so I'm off the crack now. Assuming for now that only Randall Simon is cut, here are the holes that need to be filled, in order of priority:
1) second base
2) 5th starter
3) 4th outfielder who can man centerfield
4) 2 relief pitchers
5) 1 more outfielder, along with 2 infielders.
The next column in this series will address the top priority: acquiring a second baseman. It also happens to be where I think the Cubs need to make their strongest play in the trade market...
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posted by alex at 03:06 PM | comments (0) |
LOOKING AT LEE
I have pretty mixed emotions about last week's Derrek Lee - Hee Choi swap, but I do think that, given the managerial considerations, it's a good move for both teams. Of course, if Dusty gave a rat's ass about developing young position players, this trade would most likely have been unnecessary.
Alas, Choi is gone, but Lee is hardly something to get down about. Derrek has a chance to be very, very good next year, and it wouldn't surprise me one bit if Lee turns out to be the Cubs' best offensive player.
I knew Lee hit better outside of Pro Player before this trade, but I hadn't realized how much Florida's stadium had affected him:
2001-2003 HR OPS
home 28 .828
road 51 .887
The split was especially pronounced last year, when Lee hit only .242/.371/.419 at home, but hammered opponents to the tune of .297/.388/.591 on the road.
Lee could very well be a 40-homer monster in Chicago. Pro Player has reduced righty's home run production by 18% the past few years. And while Wrigley has played liked a slight pitcher's park overall, right-handed power hitters are the one group of hitters that continue to call the confines friendly: right-handers have hit a whopping 26% more homers in Wrigley than outside it.
The primary problem Lee's acquisition creates, though, is an extreme right-handed hitting lineup. In a division in which every premiere pitcher is right-handed, you'd hope that the Cubs' hitters wouldn't show too big a platoon split. Unfortunately, the Cubs' projected 3-6 hitters all show just that (3-year averages):
OPS AGAINST:
LHP | RHP
Sosa 1.011 .885
Lee .957 .835
Alou .966 .778
Ramirez .884 .760
These four are still fairly productive against righties (and Petitte, if you join the 'stros, be very afraid), but it would be really swell to have a lefty slugger in there to help out. A full recovery (and some big steps forward) by Corey Patterson would be a good starting point, but little other lefty help is on the horizon.
Still, Lee's addition is going to be a big plus offensively. I question the value of this trade over the long haul, but if Lee hits the way I think he'll hit at Wrigley, the near future looks pretty darn good.
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posted by alex at 01:26 AM | comments (0) |
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11.29.2003 |
TRIVIA
So I finally got around to picking up the Bill James Handbook 2004, which is a fantastic resource providing up-to-date stats immediately following the baseball season. Looking at the 2003 Leader Boards section, I found a lot of the names at the top of the lists to be surprising. I'll post the answers to the following in a day or two:
1) Who played the most games in the AL, and how many games did he play?
2) What AL hitter had the highest OBP out of the leadoff spot (min. 150 PA)?
3) Which AL catcher threw out the highest percentage of potential base stealers (min 50 attempts)?
4) What NL hitter had the highest leadoff OBP (min. 150 PA)?
5) What two pitchers share the same last name AND walked a combined 200 batters last year?
6) What AL pitcher threw the most pitches per start?
7) What AL relief pitcher was the best at keeping men off base (min 50 AB)?
8) What NL pitcher threw the most pitches under 80 MPH?
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posted by alex at 12:13 AM | comments (0) |
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11.28.2003 |
THEO-LOGY
Congrats to the Red Sox. That was a fun story to follow, especially concerning Schilling's late night wanderings on Red Sox Nation message boards. This is going to be a really fun team to watch (again) next year.
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posted by alex at 11:57 PM | comments (0) |
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11.25.2003 |
WOW
Well, while I thought Choi had a good chance of being moved, I wasn't expecting that move. I'm not sure yet what to think about the trade, though as with most trades, it depends on what moves follow (is this the biggest salary the Cubs will take on this offseason?), and especially who that dreaded PTBNL is.
My first thoughts are that this helps the Cubs short-term, at least. Lee is in his prime, doesn't get paid an obnoxious amount, immediately becomes the cleanup hitter Alou has never been, and is awfully fine at first base. Choi has been a favorite of mine for several years now, so it breaks my heart to see him go, but I think this move is definitely for the best for him. I wish him well, and wouldn't be surprised to see him turn out to be a left-handed Derrek Lee within two years, minus those ill-advised steal attempts.
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posted by alex at 06:36 PM | comments (1) |
INTRODUCING AtR
Avkash Patel made a few waves a couple weeks ago with his new stat: Attrition Rate (AtR). Basically, AtR looks at how a batter works the count, showing how many pitches it would take a pitcher to get eighteen outs (or six innings, the minimum for a typical "quality start") against a lineup composed entirely of that particular batter.
In other words, how many pitches would an average pitcher have to throw to get through six innings-worth of Sammy Sosa? (108 pitches, but we'll get to that in a minute).
Why do we care about this? All starting pitchers are on a pitch count of some kind, and the more pitches you force a starter to throw, the earlier you get to the opposing team's bullpen. This is always a good thing, even when a team has a very strong bullpen.
The median AtR was 98.63. 25th percentile: 91. 75th percentile: 106. Conveniently enough, you can think of a player who has an AtR of 100 or higher to be pretty good at working the count.
This isn't a be-all, end-all stat, but it is very interesting to see who on a team makes the pitchers work harder. Here's a look at how the 2003 Cubs who had a significant number of plate appearances fared:
PLAYER 2003 AtR
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Choi 114.96
Bellhorn 111.81
Sosa 108.23
Martinez 96.64
Miller 96.51
Bako 95.88
Grudzielanek 95.56
Goodwin 95.45
Alou 94.38
Karros 93.52
Ramirez 92.99
Gonzalez 91.37
Lofton 90.96
Glanville 87.70
Patterson 85.19
Womack 84.00
O'Leary 83.48
Ojeda 79.83
Simon 79.67
Wow. That sucks. The Cubs had only three players who were above average. One of them was traded after early-season struggles, one was benched because his Batting Average wasn't pretty, and the other was Sosa. The average among the Cubs' primary starters was about 94.5, which I'm guessing might have been the worst in the majors. The Cubs are simply letting opposing starting pitchers pitch too deep into games.
It never surprises me when I see Choi's name at the top of lists like this. I'm also no longer surprised by his being completely ignored by the media and, seemingly, the Cubs management. Paul Sullivan actually wrote an article last week analyzing the Cubs' first base options and didn't even mention Choi once. For his sake, Choi should get out of town pronto, so he can get on with pulling a Jeff-Bagwell-formerly-of-the-Red-Sox routine on the Cubbies.
It is pretty clear that Baker likes guys who swing often and swing early. He hated Bellhorn, and Choi quickly fell out of favor. Even Sosa's 108 score is significantly below the 120s he had posted in previous years. Randall Simon, on the other hand, seems to be a Baker favorite, and this does not bode well for the Cubbies. A pitcher the likes of Sean P. Diddy Estes would throw a complete game every time out against a team filled with Simons.
Just for shits and giggles, here's how the five starting pitchers fared in AtR:
Zambrano 72.00
Estes 70.29
Wood 69.30
Clement 66.10
Prior 42.39
Everyone talked about Wood and Prior's offensive contributions, but did anyone else notice that Zambrano not only outhit them, but outhit the majority of the Cubs' bench?
The Cubs' have many needs in the offseason, which I hope to get into in the near future. By many indicators, it is clear that the Chicago offense is lacking, but this new measure may point out one of the key problems the Cubs face going forward. Here's hoping we get to see a few longer at bats in Wrigley field's future.
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posted by alex at 09:51 AM | comments (0) |
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11.24.2003 |
ESCOBAR
Just a quick glance at Kelvim Escobar and his shiny new contract. I think the price just about fits. Escobar certainly has his risks, and he walks too many batters, but he is a very effective number three on a good staff, and even a passable number two for the Angels. 6 mil a year isn't too much to pay for what he'll give, especially considering he probably could have convinced the Dodgers to throw 30 million at him a couple years ago.
Escobar has a very nice strikeout rate of 7.94/9, dramatically improved his groundball rate this past year, and certainly hasn't been overworked for a 27-yo pitcher.
His VORP (Value Over Replacement) score of 27.0 for 2003 was very solid, and actually placed him ahead of such luminaries as Al Leiter, Randy Wolf, Andy Pettitte, Derek Lowe, and Greg Maddux.
Overall, a good signing. Don't worry Cubbies, if certain rumors are true, we'll likely be throwing, oh, 5 or 6 million at a starter pretty soon, and that player will most certainly be worth his weight in, ahem, sterling. Eek.
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posted by alex at 11:06 PM | comments (0) |
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11.22.2003 |
RECOUNT
What in the world do Alex Rodriguez and Sammy Sosa have against Barry Bonds? It's really just silly copy for reporters, but why do both A-Rod and Sammy say they would have voted for Pujols for NL MVP?
Maybe we can start all sorts of rumors about how Barry didn't send Sammy a birthday card or how Alex is jealous he doesn't get to wear 10 pounds of armor when he comes to the plate.
Or maybe they're both just paying respect to their elder: Pujols is 47 or so, isn't he?
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posted by alex at 10:48 PM | comments (0) |
CHOI UPDATE
Well, it is actually a little hard to come by. He's looking good according to Baseball America's current stats in Venezuela, which have him listed as .324/.400/.588, a very good line indeed.
However, the current Venezuelan League results page lists him with only a .288 average, so I'm guessing BA is a little out of date.
Oh, and if you don't read Spanish, I can once again provide a very helpful and useful translation of what transpired in the game for Choi:
WHAT WILL BE OF THE LIFE OF TOW MAGALLANERO?
Powell, the defeated one by third opportunity, sent to six entrances and two thirds, allowed the three unquestionable melenudas annotations, eight and abanicó to four until Rene Kings, in seventh, forced Hee Seop Choi to commit error of three bases being replaced by Rob Stanifer.
The buccaneers left to this time seven runners in circulation, six On guard anotadora. Simple of Endy Chávez and doublet of Choi they produce the first magallanera rayita in the quarter.
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posted by alex at 10:33 PM | comments (0) |
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11.20.2003 |
PROTECTING AGAINST RULE 5
The Cubs have made some additions to their 40-man roster, adding the following players:
infielders Ronny Cedeno, Jason Dubois and Brendan Harris
pitchers Renyel Pinto and Carlos Vasquez
These players were added to prevent being exposed to the Rule V draft. Christian Ruzich, as usual, has an excellent summary of these guys, available here.
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posted by alex at 04:40 PM | comments (0) |
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11.19.2003 |
CUBS MVP VOTES
Yesterday, Barry Bonds walloped the competition (again) and earned his sixth MVP award. Well deserved. I think that overall the ballot in the NL is pretty solid, with the top five all deserving of their high placement.
Three Cubs garnered votes. Mark Prior finished ninth, appearing on over a third of the ballots, and placing as high as fifth on two of them. I think a ninth-place finish is about right for Prior, who not only contributed mightily with his arm, but also was one of the best bats on the Cubs bench. (I know, that says more about the Cubs bench than anything else)
Sammy Sosa actually placed a spot ahead of Prior, but I don't know how or why. I recognize that Sosa is far and away the best offensive player on the Cubs, and has been for quite a long time now. Using Value Over Replacement, we see that he was only the 5th-most valuable right fielder in the National League last year, 13th-most valuable outfielder in the NL, and FIFTY-THIRD-most valuable player in all of MLB. And I don't think anyone would argue that this year Sosa brought a bunch of positive intangibles to the table.
Mark Grudzielanek got the last Cubs vote - an 8th place nod - which has to come from one of the Chicago-area writers. Grudz's vote is proof that a rise from absolute awfulness to ever-so-slightly-above-averageness can get you noticed by even the most inept of the Chicago-area sports media.
In some other notable "wows" from the ballot:
• Eric Gagne's 80 innings, while immaculate, were somehow more valuable than Todd Helton's unbelievable season in Colorado, which has gone largely unnoticed. Park factors don't make you THAT good.
• Juan Pierre finished 10th. That's embarrassing. Any voter who seriously would rather have had Pierre's performance on his team than the performance of, say, Sexson, Renteria, M. Giles, or Hidalgo, needs to have his voting privileges revoked.
• Speaking of Renteria, he seriously got the shaft. Here's a shortstop who is making a good argument for being the second-best SS in all of baseball, and he finishes 15th? Even Jeter got a second-place vote in the AL.
• Miguel Cabrera got an 8th-place vote. WHAT? That is seriously fishy. Not only is he the only rookie to get any votes, but who in the hell voted for a player a) who only played in half his team's games and b) whose performance wasn't really that much above average during the regular season? I'm convinced that some reporter was allowed to submit his ballot late. Like 3 days ago late.
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posted by alex at 04:16 PM | comments (0) |
BIG BATS
The Astros today signed Brad Ausmus to a two-year deal. I'm not sure of the details. What I do know, though, is that Ausmus is horrifically bad at the plate, so it's a relief to know that the 'Stros won't be upgrading that position for the next two years.
Last week, the Astros signed a similar threat at the plate when they inked Jose Vizcaino to a $1.2 mil deal. This was also good news for the Cubs, as it similarly guarantees that Chicago won't be the only Central contender to sport gross mediocrity on their bench.
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posted by alex at 03:14 PM | comments (0) |
OAKLAND BLUE JAYS / TORONTO A'S
Incest is best, or at least Billy Beane and J.P. Ricciardi must think so. They continue to covet and occasionally trade players from the same pile of Undervalued Talent. In the latest love-swap, Ted Lilly and Bobby Kielty changed hands.
Usually, when players are traded twice in one year, there's a suspicion that they must be wearing out their welcomes rather quickly. Not so when those two teams get together. As was the case with last year's rapid-fire movement of John-Ford Griffin and Jason Arnold, this year's swap of Lilly and Kielty has nothing to do with personality (though Lilly isn't considered particularly pleasant) and everything to do with the players' on-field skills.
If the rumored acquisition of Mark Kotsay comes to fruition, the A's' outfield offense will be much improved. Kotsay underperformed last year, but I think he's a good player, and he and Kielty are a major upgrade on the Scylla-and-Charybdis-disaster trifecta of Long, Singleton, and Byrnes. Now if only Dye can start to hit...
The loss of Ramon Hernandez in the potential San Diego deal will be greatly exagerrated by the media. He had a solidish year (.789 OPS), but this isn't exactly Giambi Part Deux. I'm guessing former Cub Adam Melhuse steps in at catcher for a while, and continues to make the Cubbies look foolish by outhitting Bako and Miller for a fraction of the price. Minor Celebrity and Levi's Spokesperson Downtown Jeremy Brown continues to get on base in the minors (.388 OBP at AA Midland) but lost his power stroke (.391 SLG), and doesn't look ready just yet.
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posted by alex at 10:10 AM | comments (1) |
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11.18.2003 |
I'M NOT GETTING HITCHED QUITE YET
On a more personal note, this was clearly good news, though we'll have to wait and see whether this is like the failure in Hawaii, the compromise in Vermont, or something new entirely.
That the opposition to gay marriage nationwide is still polled at 61% against, 35% for, is both bewildering and discouraging to me, but baby steps are better than no steps at all.
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posted by alex at 10:03 PM | comments (0) |
ARIZONA FALL LEAGUE
Cubs outfielder Jason Dubois won the AFL League MVP prize while putting up gaudy numbers in the desert:
AB R HR RBI AVG OBP SLG
Jason Dubois 120 25 9 29 .358 .379 .717
These are good numbers, but you have to remember that Ken Harvey put up historically great numbers last year, and Ken's no great shakes. Something disturbing about Dubois' numbers, though, is his strikeout-to-walk ratio of 27 to 2. That's bad. Like Cory Snyder bad.
Based on his AFL stats, you'd think Snyder might actually be a good comp for Dubois. The strange thing is, though, is that Dubois had always been one of the more patient hitters in the Cubs' system. This year he drew 57 walks (436 at bats), which isn't extraordinary but well above-average in the Cubs' hackaway minor league system. Maybe Jason just felt that the balls were too tasty in Arizona to bother waiting on. His power numbers weren't affected, that's for sure.
Dubois played AA last year at age 24, and is not really considered a "prospect" any longer. He still has value to the organization, though. The Blue Jays thought so and took a look at him in last year's Rule V draft, returning him to the Cubs rather than keeping him on their roster.
Where does he fit in with the Cubs? He's a cheaper version of Troy O'Leary. He probably has at least as much pop in his bat as Troy, has a better arm (rated second best in the AFL), and considerably more upside. Turning 25 in a couple months, he's close to approaching his potential. Perhaps after a bit of seasoning at AAA, we'll get to see what that potential is.
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posted by alex at 02:35 PM | comments (0) |
FROM "Ta" TO "Bk"
I'm now basically back from the dead, by which I mean the flu, so updates should be coming more regularly again.
One thing I've been remiss to comment on is my blog's surprise appearance on The Score Bard's great Periodic Table of Blogs, for which I'm very grateful. This table is not only a really fun idea, but is also very useful for checking up on the good writing out there. And check out his poetry if you haven't already.
My element in the table has changed from the original "Ta", for "Tantalum", to the new "Bk", or "Berkelium". Yes, I had to look all that up. The definition?
Berkelium is a radioactive rare earth metal, named after the University of California at Berkeley (USA). Apparently, berkelium tends to accumulate in the skeletal system. It is of no commercial importance and only a few of its compounds are known.
I didn't attend Berkeley as an undergrad, but I did spend a summer there, and remember fondly the great Cambodian food I found off campus. Berkelium may not be the most exciting of elements (no commercial importance, sigh), but it will certainly do. Thanks, Score Bard.
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posted by alex at 01:50 PM | comments (0) |
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11.16.2003 |
CATCHING
The only player movement from the GM Meetings was San Fran's acquisition of A.J. Pierzynski from the Twins. Some Cub fans had been hopeful that Chicago would land A.J., and maybe Jim Hendry did inquire about him. The price in talent that San Francisco paid was pretty steep, giving up three young pitchers. I think it is probably a good trade for both sides, though, given the Giants' new payroll issues and the Brian Sabean's penchant for seemingly winning every trade in which he sends young pitching to another team. Pierzynski could have cost the Cubs something like Cruz, Farnsworth, and maybe even another prospect -- and I don't know if A.J., while good, is worth that price.
The Cubs do need to upgrade their offensive output at catcher, and an A.J.-type bat (.824 OPS) would look good in the lineup. Miller and Bako were solid defensively last year, and often spectacular at throwing out baserunners, but who would have guessed that they would be outslugged by the 2002 Living Dead catching tandem of Girardi and Hundley?
Cubs Catchers AVG OBP SLG OPS
2002 .229 .299 .372 .671
2003 .229 .309 .351 .660
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posted by alex at 10:05 PM | comments (0) |
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11.13.2003 |
RUMOR IS A PIPE
BLOWN BY SURMISES, JEALOUSIES, CONJECTURES...
Excerpts from the current edition of ESPN's Rumor Central:
Alex Rodriguez
Veteran baseball writer Phil Rogers suggests the Cubs could get involved in the A-Rod sweepstakes with an offer of "Alex Gonzalez, Carlos Zambrano, Kyle Farnsworth and a couple of good arms in Double A or below (not including the untouchable Angel Guzman)."
Shakespeare's pipe, quoted in this entry's title, was of the woodwind variety, but the pipe Phil Rogers and his Chicago media counterparts are blowing on is most decidedly filled with crack. It's fun to think about a trade for A-Rod, but it just ain't gonna happen.
LaTroy Hawkins
The Cubs reportedly have made inquiries about Hawkins, whom the Chicago Tribune reports has told friends he would like to play for the Cubs. "We've already thought about it," manager Dusty Baker told the paper. "But when a guy like LaTroy is out there, I'm sure he'll have offers. It all depends on what fits into our budget."
While I think that the Cubs would likely overpay LaTroy a bit, just as they did with Remlinger, this is the one reliever I wouldn't mind the Cubs spending money on. Sure to be cheaper than Eddie (see below), Hawkins has been everything Farnsworth has wanted to be the past two seasons: utterly dominant.
Fernando Viña
The Chicago Tribune reports the Cubs are interested in Viña as a second baseman and leadoff hitter. The Cardinals declined their option on Viña earlier this month, making him a free agent. Viña, 34, missed much of last season with a hamstring injury. He hit .251 in 61 games with an on-base percentage of .309, low for a leadoff man.
Shoot me, please. This is exactly the type of move that Baker would love, and that would help the Cubs inch their way ever closer to Tigerish offensive ineptitude.
Eddie Guardado
The Red Sox have been in contact with Guardado, and the reliever's agent told the Boston Globe there is "quite a bit" of interest. The agent, Kevin Kohler, told the paper, "Eddie is real good friends with David Ortiz. He told him what the clubhouse was like last year, and Eddie thinks he'd be a really good fit. I think Boston and the Cubs are his first two choices."
Is the feeling mutual? Do the Cubs want Eddie as their closer? And if they do, why? I think Guardado is a perfectly fine reliever, but he's going to be expensive, despite his inferiority to teammate and fellow free-agent LaTroy. The funniest thing, though, is that the Cubs' very own No-Name Closer, that Polish guy, was better than Guardado this year: Borowski's Adjusted Runs Prevented was 14.5, ahead of Eddie's 11.8. The only good thing about potentially moving JoBo out of the closer's role is that he'll likely end up in more high-leverage situations. Not that Dusty would notice this benefit.
There are plenty of people who'd I'd like to see the Cubs associated with on Rumor Central, but alas, we'll make due with these rumors for now.
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posted by alex at 02:38 PM | comments (0) |
BAKER OPTIMISTIC
I've been on the DL with a cold, but in catching up on the baseball news from the past few days, this quote from Our Beloved Manager raised my spirits, rid me of my sniffles, and made me feel all warm and fuzzy inside:
"My main goal right now is for us to win."
-Dusty Baker
Thanks, Dusty. For a while there, with your overuse of our starting pitchers, mismanagement of our bullpen, and insistence on playing ballplayers more suited to an Old-Timers game, I thought you were actually trying to keep this team out of the playoffs. Thanks for setting the record straight.
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posted by alex at 01:53 PM | comments (0) |
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11.11.2003 |
PHOTOGRAPHIC DIVERSIONS
That trip to Maine I mentioned in my first blog entry? I've scanned the slides I took in both Maine and Vermont and thrown them online here.
I went with my best friend since kindergarten and his mom (!). I had a great time, even if with an unorthodox group.
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posted by alex at 08:19 PM | comments (0) |
VINCE
Former speedster Vince Coleman has joined the Cubs as a minor league instructor, helping out with both baserunning and outfield play. Vince was, of course, an exceptional basestealer while in the majors, stealing often and with a high rate of success - 81% for his career.
Let's hope he limits his tutorials to swiping bases.
Vince is a classic case of a player having one exception skill - speed - and then using that skill to hide his other weaknesses.
Back in 1987, Vince was poised to become one of the premier leadoff men in the game. He had spent his first couple years in the majors running like mad, but this was the first year where he really seemed to understand that he needs to be on base in order for his speed to be best showcased.
That year, at age 25, Coleman hit .289, which along with 70 walks produced a career-high On-Base Percentage (OBP) of .363. While it's nothing to get too excited about, a .363 mark was an improvement of over 60 points over his previous year's OBP. Coleman seemed to be understanding his role, and he even had a nice total of 121 runs scored that year to prove his worth.
Unfortunately, the reasons for that year's success were apparently lost on Coleman. His walk rate dropped the following year, and he finished his career 10 years later with a meager .324 OBP.
Maybe Vince finally understands what it takes for a player with his skill-set to make a positive impact on his team. And if he hasn't, let's hope the Cubs know enough to keep his teachings out of the batter's box and strictly on the basepaths.
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posted by alex at 03:59 PM | comments (0) |
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11.10.2003 |
OH JEROME WALTON, WHERE ART THOU
Angel Berroa and Dontrelle Willis won their league's respective Rookie of the Year awards today. The voting was extremely close in the AL, where the winner was a slight surprise:
Player 1st 2nd 3rd Total
Berroa, K.C. 12 7 7 88
Matsui, N.Y. 10 9 7 84
Baldelli, T.B. 5 5 11 51
Gerut, Cle. 0 6 2 20
Teixeira, Tex. 1 1 1 9
The Associated Press wrote that the vote "rekindled the debate on whether veteran Japanese players should be eligible (for the award)", and Matsui went on to say that "I guess I just looked too old for a rookie."
Ummm, whatever, Hideki.
I have no problem with Japanese players being considered rookies for the award, just as I have no problem with Cuban defectees being rookies, and wouldn't have had a problem with Negro League players being considered rookies. Thems the rules.
What I DO have a problem with, though, is the notion that Matsui lost the award because he is Japanese, or that he was too experienced. Their offensive contributions were similar (.287/.338/.451, .789 OPS for Berroa, .287/.353/.435, .788 OPS for Matsui), but Berroa contributed this offense while playing a great shortstop, while Matsui flailed around left and center for the Yanks.
Berroa didn't win this award because Hideki was eyed skeptically by a Western media. Berroa won because he was better.
Willis rode the media hype to a first-place finish in the NL:
Player 1st 2nd 3rd Total
Willis, Fla. 17 9 6 118
Podsednik, Mil. 8 10 11 81
Webb, Ari. 7 10 8 73
Byrd, Phi. 1 3 6
Cabrera, Fla. 1 3
Lidge, Hou. 1 3
Robertson, Hou. 2 2
Reyes, N.Y. 1 1
Wigginton, N.Y. 1 1
Webb clearly outpitched Willis, but this doesn't bother me as much as I thought it would. I would have voted for Webb AND Podsednik before Willis. Maybe I'm just happy that the Cubs torched Willis in the NLCS, and want to give him a break.
On second thought, that little ring on his finger should be enough of an award. Screw 'im.
Other than Manager of the Year, this is the least interesting of the awards to me. It bears reminding that the award isn't a reflection of who the best rookie is but rather who had the best rookie season. While there are a fair share of Nomars, Jeters, and Beltrans who pick up the award, the winner could just as easily be a Listach, Hamelin, or Grieve. Like with Podsednik this year, many times votes go to a minor league veteran who breaks into the majors while entering his prime.
The Rangers wouldn't trade Mark Teixeira for anyone else on the ballot, just as the Marlins would tell you that Miguel Cabrera is their most promising player, not Willis. Now, having the writers vote on who is the more promising of those two players would make for an interesting ballot.
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posted by alex at 11:52 PM | comments (5) |
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11.9.2003 |
I LIKE MIKE
It's pretty well known that the Mets are chasing Mike Cameron, and I think with good reason. A Mets' fan in my office mentioned that the Mets were also nosing around Colorado, perhaps with Preston Wilson in mind. Here's a little comparison of the two:
On the surface, it looks like Wilson outplayed Cameron handily this year. 141 RBIs! A .537 Slugging Percentage! Two middle names!
Not so fast.
Knowing how much Cameron was hurt by Safeco, and how much Wilson was helped by Coors, it should come as no surprise that the two hit pretty similarly away from their respective home fields:
CAMERON BA OBP SLG
overall: .254 .344 .431
home: .235 .329 .429
road: .268 .357 .432
WILSON BA OBP SLG
overall: .282 .343 .537
home: .302 .370 .591
road: .260 .316 .479
For more on how Safeco affects Cameron, and some speculation on what to expect when he escapes Seattle, check out Aaron Gleeman's excellent analysis of this offseason's free agent market.
Wilson hits for slightly more power; Cameron is better at getting on base. They both strike out a ton, and both can contribute a few thefts on the basepaths. Their Equivalent Averages? Wilson: .279, Cameron: .278. We'll call their offensive contributions a draw.
Wilson is solid if unspectacular in the field, but this is where Cameron shines. Cameron is simply amazing, and probably had the finest season defensively of any centerfielder in the game, Andruw included.
As for all the other stuff, Cameron's a couple years older (31yo to Wilson's 29), but he's been healthier than Wilson, playing in at least 146 games each of the last five years.
I'm guessing that Cameron could be had for around 3 years, 21 million, or about what Wilson is owed for the remaining 2 years on his contract. I could see Cameron going for a bit more than 21 mil, but, with the dearth of good centerfield options on the market, I'd be surprised to see him get much less than that.
Given Cameron's superiority in the field, his affordability when compared to Wilson, and the fact that the Mets wouldn't need to give up a first-round pick OR any in-house talent to land him, he's pretty much the obvious choice between the two.
The only caveat I can think of is that signing Cameron takes the Mets out of the running for Carlos Beltran, who is a better hitter, excellent defensively, and is one of the few players out there who is an indisputable asset on the basepaths.
The Mets actually have some minor league talent the Royals would be happy to plug into their system. I'm guessing David Wright and Justin Huber would be eyed favorably, especially in light of Peter Gammons' assertion that the Royals are looking for a young thirdbaseman and a catcher.
But the Mets aren't going to go for anything like that, and they don't need to. Beltran would be an awesome addition to any team, but Cameron's a nice consolation prize. And if all the early talk is true, I think the consolation prize is exactly what the Mets will get.
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posted by alex at 10:51 PM | comments (0) |
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11.8.2003 |
A PADRE OR A YANKEE?
The Padres unveiled new uniforms last week. Jim Baker already served as the fashion police in a recent Insider column (subscription only), and I agree with his assessment: home unis, blah. road unis, hot. But the introduction of a new look in and of itself is causing me to rethink some lingo I've thrown around the past few years.
Some background. Parties in New York are commonly attended by a healthy mix of gay and straight guys. Thanks to the current trend in metrosexuality, it isn't always easy to distinguish who plays for which team. In recognition of this problem, a friend and I decided we needed a code language to assist us in our sexuality sleuthing.
A "Yankee" is a gay man. The term doesn't have to be used literally. "He's a Yankee" is fine if your conversation isn't within earshot. In mixed company, though, a whispered, "pinstripes", or sly allusion to Jeter will get the point across.
On the other end of the spectrum are the "Padres". Preacher humor, biblical quotes, and references to white collars are good signifiers that a guy is attached to womankind.
The Yankees and Padres weren't chosen as representative teams by chance. My friend, who has scant baseball knowledge, thought that the Yankees' recent dominance was indicative of "success", perhaps optimistically characterizing our chances of scoring with said "pinstriped" fellow. The Padres, on the other hand, haven't had as much success lately, so they seemed a natural fit to designate those with whom our relationship that night would be limited to good conversation, at best.
Now, though, the Padres have gone through a makeover and, along with some other shiny new objects, are poised to be pretty good sooner than later. My friend and I might need to revisit our party vocab and choose another team for the straight folk. Maybe the Tigers will work. I can see myself growling my way through a Saturday evening out on the town...
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posted by alex at 07:39 PM | comments (0) |
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11.7.2003 |
DISAPPEARED IT BY THE RIGHT
In following Hee Seop Choi's progress in Venezuela, I have to resort to auto-translating game summaries, often to humorous effect:
MAGALLANES I MOVE NOTHING MAS
The Turkish ship with much effort managed to make a race in sections three, six and seven. Heep Seop Choi ponchó in trio of opportunities leaving itself to four companions in base, although impulse the one of seventh with simple.
In the entered novena it seemed that they turned around the game. Choi, with out, disappeared it by the right. Héctor Giménez takes steps to acquire passport with two outs. Ronald Coins roars it between first and second crediting infield hit and forcing Carlos Leon to incur one pifia to place men in second and third. Raul Chávez would come from emergent ponchar itself and finalizing the game.
This, of course, is simply another way of saying that Choi stranded four runners while striking out three times, but drove in a pair with a single and a home run to right field.
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posted by alex at 06:31 PM | comments (2) |
OFFSEASON WISH LIST
The Cubs have some work to do this offseason. Below, you'll find my Top Seven Moves that will bring Chicago to the promised land in 2004.
1. Joe Borowski needs to change his name. Apparently, the Cubs are worried that he isn't a big enough "name" closer, and that he might not be very reliable next year. I'd suggest he change his name to "Joe Rivera", or "Joe Smoltz". Heck, even "Joe Thigpen" would probably do the trick.
2. Alex Rodriguez needs to change his name. To Alex Gonzalez. With three A-Gonzes in baseball, confusion would reign supreme, and maybe A-Rod (I mean, A-Gonz, Texas version) could show up every day at Wrigley and no one would notice.
3. Randall Simon needs to alter his birth certificate. He needs to change the "born 1975" to "born 1983". This solves the First Base Conundrum: there is simply no way that Baker would play a 21-yo position player every day.
4. In contrast to Simon, Hee Seop Choi needs to add 5 years to his age, and then "promise" Baker he'll swing at the first pitch he sees in every at-bat. Then, Choi just needs to keep doing what he's been doing all along.
5. Miguel Batista, Kelvim Escobar, and Greg Maddux all need to claim that they're really left-handed. Those three, added to Petitte, would make a nice foursome for choosing an addition to the rotation. Since Cubs management is convinced that they have to have a lefty, even if he is a suckhole of suckiness, then we should at least provide management with viable "lefty" options.
6. Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Zambrano need to develop the three-digit willies. They need to complain to Baker that they are scared of numbers like 129, 133, and 141, and that Baker needs to do everything he can to avoid letting them get anywhere close to those "spooky" numbers.
7. The Cubs should hire the cast of The OC to serve beverages at the games. That should scare off any goats.
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posted by alex at 02:31 PM | comments (0) |
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11.6.2003 |
HEE SEOP CHOI
Hee Seop Choi BA RBI K
2003 .218 28 71
Hee Seop Choi didn't have a very good year, but it wasn't nearly as bad as the relatively unimportant numbers above would indicate. Unfortunately, those are the numbers a lot of people in Chicago seem to be paying attention to. His average is certainly lower than expected, and his K-rate was awful (3.37 PA per K), but he was actually putting together an excellent rookie campaign until his ill-fated collision with Kerry Wood:
BA OBP SLG
pre-injury .244 .389 .496
post-injury .164 .253 .269
I don't know how much of the decline is due to the injury, and how much is due to his limited playing time, but going from Jeff Bagwell (circa 2003) to Augie Ojeda is never a good thing. Choi is currently in Venezuela working out any kinks, and he seems to be doing well so far.
Choi's rookie year certainly wasn't a bust, though. In addition to drawing a lion's share of walks and hitting for solid power, Choi proved he does some little things well. No, this doesn't mean he bunted his way into numerous outs. Rather, he is happily reluctant to hit into double plays (only 2 GIDP all year), and he works the count with the best of them:
NL LEADERS #Pitches/PA
Wilkerson 4.4
Abreu 4.3
Choi 4.25
Choi's rate was just ahead of Rolen, Burrell, Edmonds, Thome, Helton, and Sosa. Pretty good company.
What's in store for next year? Choi needs to play every day, either with the Cubs or with another team (and there's really only one available firstbaseman that intrigues me). Despite the clamboring everywhere for a right-handed counterpart, Choi doesn't need a platoon partner. And it could be that limiting his exposure to lefties is actually taking away from his strength:
2001 (PCL) BA AB/HR
LHP: .286 14.0
RHP: .209 24.5
2002 (PCL) SLG%
LHP: .550
RHP: .501
These are unfortunately the only splits I have available (anyone out there with minor league splits for 2001-2?), but the basic picture is clear: Choi hit lefties harder in 2001 and 2002, but in 2003 he was given a scant 26 PA against them -- which is hardly a large enough sample size from which to draw any conclusions.
I fear the Cubs will mess this up, but here's hoping Choi is given a proper chance to develop. I think he'll perform well. The only question is whether or not he'll do it wearing Cubbie Blue.
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posted by alex at 04:01 PM | comments (2) |
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11.5.2003 |
WHAT'S IN A NAME?
I am gay, and I am a baseball fan. I like guys, and I like the Cubs. These things are not mutually exclusive, but it is rare indeed when my worlds intersect. Games 2-4 of the NLCS was such an instance. Vacationing in southern Maine, I went out to the boy bars in Ogunquit each night. While most patrons were busy ogling the soft porn on the TV monitors (or the live soft porn on the dance floor), I was glued to the one monitor in the room tuned to the Cubs-Marlins series.
I must've been quite a site, my celebratory screams drowning out the thumpety-thumps. I like to think the locals were slightly charmed by my antics -- probably thinking a wayward straight guy had wandered in, desperate for a sports bar.
The Cubs greeted my return to Brooklyn with three straight losses. I should have stayed in Maine.
I originally thought of naming the blog, simply, "Gay Baseball Fan", but thought it sounded too much like a tabloid headline. "Queer Eye for the Baseball Guy" seemed too obvious, and that play on words is already passé. A guy at work suggested "Ball Talk", which has just a touch of innuendo to it, and I think it works.
But this site isn't about being gay, or about gay baseball players, or about who I think is a hottie. It's about baseball and, specifically, my Cubbies. That's the goal of "Ball Talk" -- it's baseball talk, and all that other stuff can be saved for other forums.
If my worlds ever interesect in the arena of professional sports, and some athlete takes the giant leap from their closet, I'll have my two cents to add to the discussion. Otherwise, you'll see me sticking to topics that land squarely between home plate and the bleachers.
It's particularly gratifying to start a blog that you helped build. My server can't support pretty little Movable Type, so with the help of a friend I played around with a nifty Cold-Fusion application till I got what I wanted. Find that something's not working how you'd like? Shoot me an email and I'll try to fix it.
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posted by alex at 02:45 PM | comments (7) |
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