| February 2004 archive |
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2.29.2004 |
FONT SIZE = BIGGER
I like things that are miniature -- I liked hot wheels as a kid, Kit Kat Bites are better than the candy bar, and small fonts are prettier than big ones.
But I've been getting scared that I'm slowly blinding my readers with my smallish type, so I've bumped it up a notch -- at least temporarily. Tell me what you think.
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posted by alex at 05:10 PM | comments (3) |

DERREK LEE'S CONTRACT
On the morn of what may turn out to be the most anticlimactic Oscars in recent memory, I'm thinking about Trib money, and how it's being spent.
As reported yesterday, Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee has signed a three-year deal to stay with the club through 2006. Including his signing bonus, the deal breaks down as follows:
$, in millions
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2004: 6.117
2005: 7.667
2006: 8.667
Seemingly off-topic note: Baseball Prospectus (BP) begins their second year of premium service tomorrow, and if you aren't already a subscriber, I suggest you run screaming towards BP right now and get hooked up. With the new subscription year at BP comes updated PECOTA cards for each player -- cards created using BP's vaunted projection system.
One handy bit on the PECOTA cards is their projections for how many "Wins" a particular player is worth when compared to a replacement-level player. Averaging the Wins totals from 2004-2006, we get a sense of how baseball's first basemen stack up:
AVG. WINS AVG SALARY
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Jason Giambi 4.700 16.167
Todd Helton 4.467 13.600
Jim Thome 4.133 11.500
Carlos Delgado 3.700 18.500 (2004)
Nick Johnson 3.367 -N/A-
Derrek Lee 3.267 7.484
Mark Teixeira 3.133 -N/A-
Richie Sexson 2.733 8.000 (2004)
Mike Sweeney 2.233 11.000
Hee Seop Choi 2.100 -N/A-
Carlos Pena 2.067 -N/A-
Jeff Bagwell 2.033 13.667
Ryan Klesko 1.967 7.667
Doug Mientkiewicz 1.667 3.433
Justin Morneau 1.433 -N/A-
Paul Konerko 1.400 8.375 (2004-5)
Sean Casey 0.667 7.300 (2004-5)
Derrek Lee projects to be the sixth-best first baseman in all of baseball over the next three years, though this list doesn't include Albert Pujols, who -- if he sticks at first -- is clearly number one. Still, Lee looks like a good bet to be one of the best players at his position for the duration of his contract.
The salaries listed above are the averages for the 2004-2006 seasons only (thanks to Dugout Dollars for this info). Players with "N/A"s are youngsters not yet eligible for free agency. It is noteworthy that while Giambi, Helton, and Thome head the list above, they are each signed to long-term contracts that may become albatrosses (albatrossi? albatress?) beginning in 2007. Each of their salaries go up after 2006, while their production will likely decline. The length of Lee's contract is a big plus -- in 2007 he will be 31, and the market for his skills may have changed dramatically.
It's also interesting to see Hee Seop Choi on the list. Choi clearly represents a better value than Lee, but Choi's expected production is a downgrade, at least in the short term. Considering that the Cubs may have only a small window of opportunity to Win Now!, and braced with the knowledge that Choi was up against Dusty Baker's AARP, hacktastic lineup preferences, it seems that Hendry did the right thing in shipping Choi south to the Marlins.
Once you eliminate the players who have yet to see a free agent payday, it becomes obvious that Lee's contract is an excellent use of Tribune cash. Dividing each player's average salary by their average "Wins", we get their cost in dollars per marginal Win:
$/Win, in millions
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Doug Mientkiewicz 2.059
Derrek Lee 2.291
Jim Thome 2.782
Richie Sexson 2.927
Todd Helton 3.045
Jason Giambi 3.440
Ryan Klesko 3.898
Mike Sweeney 4.926
Carlos Delgado 5.000
Paul Konerko 5.982
Jeff Bagwell 6.723
Sean Casey 10.945
I'm admittedly using some fuzzy math here -- the lower a player's salary, the better chance they have at looking like a bargain. Eric Karros, for example, looks like a steal at $1.1 million/Win, but then again, he's only projected to add .50 Wins over the year. The key is to set a baseline for expected performance; if you consider a player who averages over 3 Wins to be performing at an All-Star level, then Lee's contract looks very good indeed.
Cubs GM Jim Hendry has had an excellent offseason, and has continued his good deeds this spring training. Kerry Wood's contract was under-market, and Derrek Lee's has a chance to look like highway robbery over the next few years. If Hendry continues to aptly read the marketplace while signing smart, incentive-laden contracts, the Cubs' current window of opportunity may open up into a long-term culture of success.
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posted by alex at 04:57 PM | comments (0) |

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2.28.2004 |
LEE, TOO
Not only did new Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee get a new nickname this week, he also just signed a three-year extension to stay with the club through 2006. I haven't heard about the money involved yet, but 3 years is, again, the perfect length for a deal with Lee, keeping him with the club through his prime.
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posted by alex at 01:19 PM | comments (1) |

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2.27.2004 |
WOOD SIGNS
Kerry Wood has signed a 3-year deal to stay with the Cubs through the 2006 season. The contract has a mutual option for the 2007 season.
The money involved in the deal has yet to be announced, so I'll wait to give my thoughts until we have more information.
UPDATE: Wood's deal is for 3 years, 32.5 million guaranteed. The guaranteed money includes a 3 million buyout of a fourth year club option for $13.5 million. From what I can tell, the deal breaks down as:
signing bonus: 3 million
2004: 7 million
2005: 8.5 million
2006: 11 million
2007: vesting and/or team option: 13.5 million, 3 million buyout.
Initial reaction: the Cubs just locked up a premiere pitcher through his prime for an annual salary that is below market. The amount of years is perfect, the 2007 option only vests if Wood pitches 400 innings in 2005-6 combined, and it makes the deals given to Bartolo Colon and Andy Pettitte this offseason, among other contracts, look particularly bad.
I did a four-part series earlier in the offseason in which I concluded that Wood was "worth" about 3 years, 33 million. This deal contains almost exactly that amount, but is structured much more advantageously than I imagined, allowing a bit more wiggle room in the salary in the first two years while never exceeding the 11 million mark.
Great signing.
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posted by alex at 01:53 PM | comments (4) |

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2.26.2004 |
RODAN
Cubs Manager Dusty Baker's nicknaming ways are back with a vengeance, as he has gifted new Cubs first baseman Derrek Lee with the moniker "Rodan".
I know nothing about Japanese monster movies, so my initial reaction was that Baker had inexplicably chosen -- and misspelled -- a French artist to be Lee's baseball muse. Alas, Rodan did not create The Gates of Hell, but does look like he might have come from them. According to the report on Cubs.com, Rodan "was an enormous flying pterosaur with a wingspan of 394 feet."
He was also an enemy of Godzilla. Is Baker playing his hand early this year? Is he, perhaps, looking into a crystal ball and seeing the Cubs' very own Rodan facing off in a World Series against a certain Yankee left fielder?
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posted by alex at 11:16 PM | comments (0) |

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2.24.2004 |
I AIN'T GETTING GREEDY, I JUST LIKE GOOD SHOES
A few days ago Paul Sullivan had a curious report over at the Chicago Tribune in which Corey Patterson waxed poetic on wanting to bat third in the Cubs' lineup:
"That's where I feel comfortable," Patterson said. "That's something I have to work at. Ask any big-league players and they'd say they want to bat third. Normally the best hitter bats third, and you're always striving to be the best player on your team."
And I'd like to be the richest guy in my office, too.
If Patterson were to hit third, Sullivan projects the following lineup:
1. Mark Grudzielanek
2. Alex Gonzalez
3. Corey Patterson
4. Sammy Sosa
5. Aramis Ramirez
6. Moises Alou
7. Derrek Lee
8. Michael Barrett
Finding on-base percentage in the Cubs' lineup is like discovering Prada shoes in the back of your closet. You don't toss the shoes into your hamper; you rightfully place them in a position of prominence in your wardrobe rotation.
Derrek Lee represents on-base percentage. It is his most valuable offensive asset to the Cubs, and placing Lee's OBP any lower than fourth in the Cubs' lineup sure seems like a waste.
But is it? With a nifty run simulator in tow, I set out to see how many runs this lineup can be expected to produce. Plugging in Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections, Sullivan's lineup averaged 758 runs over the course of 10 simulated "seasons". An improvement over last year's total of 724, but still no great shakes.
I tested out a couple different lineup constructions, and the following was the most effecient "reasonable" lineup (considering there is no chance that either Lee or Sosa would ever hit leadoff):
1. Grudzielanek
2. Lee
3. Sosa
4. Ramirez
5. Patterson
6. Alou
7. Gonzalez
8. Barrett
This new-fangled order only produced marginal gains: 765 runs per season, and almost all of these gains come from moving Lee up in the order. An improvement of 7 runs is worth noting, but it isn't going to single-handedly solve the Cubs' problems. As has been discussed several times by ESPN.com analyst Rob Neyer, what's important isn't where you bat your hitters, but who you put in the lineup to begin with.
For the second season in a row, Joe Sheehan of BP sees the Cubs' offensive quandary being fixed with one bold move. Sheehan reflects on a comment he made prior to last season:
[written before the 2003 season] There's one big move the Cubs can make that I believe would make them the division's favorite: trading for Carlos Beltran. They have the talent to make the deal, the need for a Beltran, and the resources to sign him beyond his walk year of 2004.
The Cubs can start their offer with Patterson, two years from arbitration and five from free agency, and they can back it up with a major-league-ready live arm in Cruz. The Royals need position-player prospects, so in addition to those two-who might be enough on their own, and who the Cubs would never miss--toss in a David Kelton, who might be able to patch third base once the Joe Randa contract ends. That's a good package for a player who isn't going to do anything the next two years but hurt the Royals' draft position. Patterson and Cruz have a chance to be part of something in Kansas City; Beltran doesn't.
Beltran would provide the left-handed bat (he's a switch-hitter) and OBP the Cubs desperately need, while improving their defense and eventually inheriting the team from Sammy Sosa. Sosa can be a free agent after 2005 and will be one after 2006, and if the Cubs have to choose between spending on the 27-year-old center fielder or the 36-year-old right fielder, it should be an easy decision. Acquiring Beltran makes as much sense today as it did a year ago, and would make this team the division favorite.
The Cubs' lineup with Beltran inserted instead of Patterson:
1. Grudzielanek
2. Beltran
3. Sosa
4. Lee
5. Ramirez
6. Alou
7. Gonzalez
8. Barrett
This lineup produces 800 runs, which would give the Cubs one of the league's best offenses to go along with one of the best pitching staffs. It'll never happen, though. Beltran would be expensive both in cost and talent, the Royals are pretending that they have a very good team, and the Cubs are already faced with the impending free agency of two key cogs (Kerry Wood and Lee) and might have trouble signing those two plus a third free-agent-to-be.
Acquiring Jason Kendall from the Pirates is a more feasible move, and has the added benefit of knocking a guy out of the top of the order who really doesn't belong there:
1. Kendall
2. Lee
3. Sosa
4. Ramirez
5. Patterson
6. Alou
7. Grudzielanek
8. Gonzalez
By replacing Barrett's middling projection and moving Lee up in the order, we get 775 runs, 10 runs better than the "ideal" current lineup, and 17 better than Sullivan's. Maybe more Kenneth Cole than Prada, but an improvement nonetheless.
What's become clear to me in running these studies is that the Cubs do not need to be worrying too much about their lineup construction, but that they do need to acquire another OBP threat to pose anything resembling a threatening offense. Can the Cubs win the division as-is? Absolutely. But a little more offense would go a long way.
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posted by alex at 08:03 PM | comments (8) |

WALKIN' DOWN THE AISLE
I try not to stray too far from baseball on this blog, but sometimes an issue outside of the sport touches too close to home for me to ignore. Today George Bush encouraged Congress to quickly pass an amendment to the U.S. Constitution that would, in effect, ban gay marriage.
One of the cardinal rules of writing is to not write angry, but I have no choice here. I am angry, and no amount of time will pass where this proposed amendment will not enrage me. There will be a groundswell of justification coming from conservative factions, saying that an amendment might still allow gay couples to engage in civil unions, thereby gaining some of the legal rights currently afforded straight married couples. This is hogwash. Despite the legalese and political kowtowing that will shroud this issue, the truth of the matter is inescapable: an amendment banning gay marriage would be a law borne purely out of hatred and fear.
This might be the one issue on which I agree with Andrew Sullivan. In his blog, he writes:
When people talk about "gay marriage," they miss the point. This isn't about gay marriage. It's about marriage. It's about family. It's about love. It isn't about religion. It's about civil marriage licenses - available to atheists as well as believers. These family values are not options for a happy and stable life. They are necessities. Putting gay relationships in some other category - civil unions, domestic partnerships, civil partnerships, whatever - may alleviate real human needs, but, by their very euphemism, by their very separateness, they actually build a wall between gay people and their own families. They put back the barrier many of us have spent a lifetime trying to erase.
Sullivan gets to the heart of the matter. Civil unions would not be a reiteration of seperate but equal laws. Civil unions are seperate but diminished.
Back to baseball later today, I promise.
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posted by alex at 02:25 PM | comments (9) |

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2.22.2004 |
ALL FOR HER HUBBY
I think I just fell in love. Thanks to a link over at Redbird Nation, I've stumbled on the Baseball Widow blog, created by a woman whose tagline is, "The frustrations of a woman who will always be second in her husband's heart . . . He follows the game, and I follow him."
Bravo. And as a woman after my heart, she just posted an entertaining article regarding fantasy baseball, where she discusses picking her team based on looks rather than stats.
Javy Lopez leads the way -- an appropriate choice, and a player who narrowly missed my Top Ten Gay Icons list last month.
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posted by alex at 04:08 PM | comments (0) |

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2.21.2004 |
SKINNY-WINNY
A slightly svelter Carlos Zambrano has reported to spring training this year, having dropped fifteen pounds in the offseason. Zambrano thinks that the lost weight will both help ease the burden on his back and increase his effectiveness throughout a long season:
"With my back problems ... I was overweight,'' Zambrano said Friday. "I talked to a professional trainer and he worked with me during the off-season. I won't say I was fat, I want to say overweight. There is a difference. Fat is when a person is like Quevedo (former Cubs pitcher Ruben).
"I knew I had to do something. If you throw 200 or more innings, you have to be in shape. And I want to throw more than 200 innings this year. If you work on your diet and strength, it well help you be in perfect shape for the playoffs."
Zambrano isn't the only player of note to come into his team's camp having shed a few pounds. Jim Baker of ESPN.com writes that both the Colorado's Larry Walker and Toronto's Eric Hinske have also arrived noticeably lighter.
This will undoubtedly raise a few eyebrows. Tom Verducci of Sports Illustrated wrote that, due to the current scrutiny concerning steroids use, we should expect many similar reports this spring:
Now that steroid testing with penalties (albeit soft ones) is here, be prepared to hear more than a few spring training stories about players who "took yoga," "lost weight," "changed diets," "cut back on weightlifting," "came in lighter," "wanted to be more flexible," and other code words for cutting down on steroids and other illegal supplements. Some such anecdotal evidence existed last year, when the testing was anonymous and for survey purposes only, but now the incidence of slimmed-down players probably will grow. One star NL pitcher, for instance, shrunk so noticeably this winter that another player remarked, "I swear to you when I saw him I didn't even recognize him."
In the cases of Zambrano, Walker, and Hinske, though, I don't think Verducci's insinuations are relevant. All three have specific health or performance reasons for dropping weight. In Zambrano's case, losing even a few pounds helps ease the load on his back, and Baker outlines the incentives behind Walker and Hinske's slimmer figures:
Both players had compelling reasons for trimming down. Hinske had 136 fewer plate appearances than he did in his rookie year of 2002 in a season marred by injury and lowered production. Of his 2003 condition, he told Griffin, "It affects my defense the most when I have a little weight on. I don't move as well. I don't have as much range at third. And running, too, I'm a step slower."
Walker had reached the point where he was contemplating retirement at age 37. He failed to slug .500 for the first time in a decade. His state of mind had reached a low point in 2003. He says of his situation at that time: "I hated it a lot. I was doing bad. The team was struggling. Retirement was close," he told Renck. "My wife (Angela) and I talked about it. Would retiring be just folding it in? Or should I pick myself up and see what I can do to improve? I took the latter of the two."
Whether or not losing weight will actually keep these players healthy and better their performance is an unresolved question. It certainly makes sense that this would be the case, especially given the recent success of former slim-fasters Javy Lopez and Pudge Rodriguez. It could make for an interesting study to see how weight (both in loss and gain) affects performance, but I haven't been able to come across any studies on the issue -- and season-by-season data of this sort is difficult to come by. Anyone know where you find this information?
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posted by alex at 02:54 PM | comments (2) |

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2.20.2004 |
FUN WITH PHOTOSHOP
With the Cubs' roster for the most part complete, I've been tooling around with around 150 photos of members of this year's team. I came across a nifty little program which can combine a group of photos into one image -- a photo mosaic. Inspired by last year's retiring of #10, I decided to use Ron Santo as the main subject.
And so, I present your 2004 Cubs:
You can click on the above thumbnail for a larger image. And a detail from the image, showing you some of the original photos used, can be seen here.
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posted by alex at 04:34 PM | comments (3) |

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2.19.2004 |
SIX INNINGS OF GOODNESS
I think it has taken me so long to write something about the Cubs' signing of Greg Maddux because, to be honest, I'm still in shock. Every fan has a couple players that they just can't be rational about, and Maddux tops my list. I was heartbroken when he left Chicago, but never stopped rooting for him -- a trite notion, perhaps, but one I believe that a lot of Cubs fans share. There may have been other moves the Cubs have made over the past 11 years that were smarter, addressed greater needs, or were more economical, but there hasn't been a single one that had the emotional resonance of bringing Greg home again. And as fans, we should allow ourselves the rare joy experienced when a player's acquisition truly transcends the impact he'll have on the field.
Not to say he won't have a big impact on this team. With Mark Prior and Kerry Wood entrenched at the top of the Cubs' rotation, Maddux fits in nicely as the number three starter. And this isn't a nominal title bestowed on an aging star just because of what he used to be: Maddux seems likely to perform as the third-best starter on the team, which would be no small feat on a loaded Cubs' staff. Predictions are always a dicey enterprise, but Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections think Maddux will be about as valuable this year as Mark Mulder, Roy Oswalt, Barry Zito, and Randy Johnson. Derek Smart of The Big Red C has an excellent look at how a performance of this caliber could affect the Cubs next year.
Greg Maddux comes to the Cubs with a rep: he's now just a six-inning pitcher. Maddux no longer has the endurance he had in the early nineties, when he regularly finished what he started. Check out that 1994 season:
YEAR INNINGS/GAME STARTED (I/GS)
1992 7.66
1993 7.42
1994 8.08
1995 7.49
The 1994-5 seasons are legend, of course. In 1994, Maddux averaged over 8 innings a start while "accumulating" a 1.56 ERA.
Maddux the past three years?
YEAR I/GS
2001 6.85
2002 5.86
2003 6.06
This looks, appropriately enough, like a player who is in his twilight. And it certainly seems justifiable to call Maddux a "six-inning pitcher".
But my question is: so what?
Most pitchers in today's game average around six-innings per start. The average number of innings pitched by starters in the National League last year (minimum 160 innings) was 6.24 I/GS, and only four pitchers in the league averaged 7 or more innings per start:
NAME I/GS
Schmidt 7.16
L. Hernandez 7.07
Prior 7.04
Schilling 7.00
Maddux would have ranked fifth among last year's Cubs staff, following Prior (7.04), Zambrano (6.69), Wood (6.59), and Clement (6.30). But I really don't know if this is all that significant.
- Maddux's average is low in part to his abyssmal start to the season. From July 1st on, Maddux averaged 6.29 I/GS, above league average, or about what Clement, Kevin Millwood, Russ Ortiz, and Matt Morris averaged for the season.
- The difference between Maddux and those who rank in the top 15 in I/GS is about one out per game. This is around 33 outs a season, or 11 innings if you want to look at it that way. I just don't see asking a bullpen, especially one that should be as solid as the Cubs', to cover 11 innings over the course of a season to be that big a deal.
- I'm not sure Maddux's number isn't more indicative of Bobby Cox than Greg himself. Bobby Cox's top four starters have averaged 6.24 I/GS the past three years; Dusty Baker's staffs have averaged 6.43 I/GS.
- Despite all this mumbling and grumbling, Maddux still managed to start more games (36) and throw more innings (218.3) in 2003 than anyone on the Cubs.
Calling Maddux a six-inning pitcher is supposed to be some kind of slight, a reflection that he has lesser abilities than most pitchers. It is an accurate statement of where Greg is in his career, but it is hardly an insult. Six innings of goodness? Sounds about right to me.
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posted by alex at 03:43 PM | comments (2) |

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2.17.2004 |
MADDUX TO D-RAYS? MADDUX TO ROCKIES? MADDUX TO THE KNICKS?
And, a day after WABC-TV in New York announced that Greg Maddux was about to become Yankee property, the Atlanta Journal-Constitution is reporting that Maddux is expected to sign with the Cubs tomorrow.
UPDATE: ESPN, the Trib, and American Injury Idol Will Carroll are all reporting that Maddux is signed, sealed, and delivered. The amount of the deal is still a matter of some speculation, ranging from 3 years, $24 million, to 3 years, $7.5-8 per, to 2 years plus option.
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posted by alex at 11:21 PM | comments (3) |

HENDRY Q&A
The Daily Herald has a short but informative Q&A with Cubs GM Jim Hendry today. I especially enjoyed hearing his take on the farm system, his area of expertise with the Cubs prior to his ascension to the GM role:
(Infielder Brendan) Harris is a good player. We think he's going to be major-league ready by next year. He can play second. He can play third. He can hit.
What's interesting at (Class AAA) Iowa is that we're going to have three starting outfielders who are all 40-man roster guys, and we like all three - David Kelton, Nic Jackson and Jason DuBois. This has become a big year for David. We would like somebody next year to make the club as an infielder and outfielder.
DuBois is a guy, as the industry will tell you, on the climb. He was the MVP of the Fall League. He's a big strong guy with power. All three of those guys are under 25. They're all home-grown guys. We're hoping at least one of them has a breakout year and that we can count on them next year or they come up (this year).
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posted by alex at 02:14 PM | comments (2) |


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2.15.2004 |
MORE NEWS ON BELTRAN
Ken Rosenthal of the Sporting News has the following to report on Cubs relief prospect Francis Beltran:
Cubs Class AAA RHP Francis Beltran was a revelation pitching for Licey in his native Dominican Republic, going from unreliable middle reliever to closer, ahead of Giants RHP Felix Rodriguez and Dodgers RHP Guillermo Mota. "He's come up with a split-fingered fastball from hell," one scout says. "From what I saw, I don't know how you can keep him off their team." Beltran, 24, was shut down at Class AAA last July because of biceps tendinitis, but he is expected to compete for a spot in the bullpen -- there will be one or two openings, depending on whether the Cubs sign free-agent RHP Greg Maddux. Beltran throws 95 to 98 mph, and the Cubs project him as a closer in the future...
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posted by alex at 10:09 PM | comments (2) |

A COUPLE A-ROD THOUGHTS
Some scratch analysis here, as I ready myself for a live fantasy baseball draft in a few minutes.
Yankee fans are envisioning World Series titles for at least the next decade, thanks to the stunning A-Rod trade. Maybe they will win all those titles, too. Wouldn't that be fun? Wouldn't it be just great for baseball to see one team win every championship for the next 10 years?
Infantile pissiness, finished. But before all you Yank fans start getting hard-ons a la Alex Belth, I thought I'd take a look at the changes to the Yanks' lineup through the eyes of Baseball Prospectus' 2004 projected Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) to see exactly how much this trade betters the Yanks. I'm going to include Aaron Boone in my analysis, since this deal never would have happened if he hadn't taken a fall.
PRE A-ROD PROJECTED VORP
Boone, 3b 26.1
Soriano, 2b 55.5
81.6
POST A-ROD PROJECTED VORP
A-Rod, 3b 83.2
Cairo, 2b 6.1
89.3
To my surprise, there isn't much of a difference here. And since VORP takes into account the position you're playing, A-Rod's projection is actually high -- he loses some value in a move to third base. Most surprising, if Jose Contreras and his projected 24 VORP leave town as well, this entire debacle could be a net minus. The only way the Yankees can make this into a commanding "win" for them is if they can go out and find a much better second baseman than their current options.
It certainly isn't intuitive to think that A-Rod doesn't dramatically improve the Yankees, but it appears, from VORP's point of view at least, that this move leaves the Yankees at roughly the same place they were before Boone got injured. They're still the favorites in the AL East, as they were a month ago (despite what the pundits were saying), but Boston fans need not weep: the Yanks aren't running away with this one yet.
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posted by alex at 04:47 PM | comments (3) |

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2.14.2004 |
MY THIRD-LEAST-FAVORITE HOLIDAY
Once again, Valentine's Day is here to rub its pink-tinged, Hallmark-scented, heart-shaped ass in my face. I may be able to get married come May, but that right does me little good at this moment. As always, single am I.
And if the chipper singing of love-birds weren't enough to put me in a foulish mood this day, an assortment of baseball headlines came out this morning, seemingly with the express purpose of poking me in the proverbial ribs:
REPORT: A-ROD WILLING TO PLAY THIRD BASE
The Yankees are said to be in serious discussions with the Rangers to acquire Alex Rodriguez and move him to third base, where he'd play alongside shortstop Derek Jeter.
According the report, the Yanks would ship Alfonso Soriano, Jose Contreras, and catching prospect Dioner Navarro to the Rangers. The idea that Derek Jeter's presence at short would move the golden glove of A-Rod to third is laughable, but that isn't even what makes me the most upset: I just drafted Jose Contreras in my first fantasy baseball draft of the year yesterday, and I don't want him pitching in Texas. Ever.
TWINS WIN ARBITRATION CASE WITH SANTANA
The Twins on Friday won their arbitration case with lefthander Johan Santana and will pay him $1.6 million this season.
Santana, 12-3 with a 3.07 ERA last season, had requested a 2004 salary of $2.45 million.
So far in arbitration cases, we've seen both Johan Santana and Nick Johnson -- two young players who are arguably the most important cogs on their respective teams -- lose their battles in court. However, super-scrub pep boys David Eckstein and Jack Wilson won their cases the other day, leaving some to speculate that it doesn't matter how much suckage you add to your ball club's lineup as long as you're short and hyper.
GILLICK SAYS HE'S INTERESTED IN DODGER GM JOB
The Dodgers have been granted permission by the Seattle Mariners to interview veteran executive Pat Gillick for their general manager job, a development that probably will slow Oakland assistant GM Paul DePodesta's fast track to the Dodger front office.
I'm sure Dodger fans are just jumping up and down with glee when seeing this headline. During an offseason in which they've traded for Juan Encarnacion and called it a day, the Dodgers are interviewing a former GM known mostly in recent years for "standing Pat". At least this story seems unlikely to lead anywhere -- its been reported for days now that current GM Dan Evans is (unfairly) getting the boot in favor of Super GM Prospect DePodesta.
I don't mean to be all grumpy today. There is some kinda-sorta good news regarding Maddux in the papers today. The daily roller coaster ride regarding his negotiations with various clubs appears to be reaching a summit of sorts today, at least as far as the Cubs go. The San Francisco Giants, who leaked that they had made an offer to Maddux yesterday, were reportedly rejected:
MADDUX REJECTS GIANTS' OFFER, CONSIDERS OPTIONS
Maddux's agent, Scott Boras, contacted the team Thursday night, ultimately leading to a multiyear offer for the free-agent pitcher, according to a major-league source. The offer, however, was rejected quickly, and the Giants aren't sure if they have any shot at signing him.
The Cubs, on the other hand, are still hard at work:
CUBS STEPPING UP OFFER FOR MADDUX
The Cubs are intensifying their efforts this weekend to try to reach a two-year agreement with free-agent pitcher Greg Maddux. If it's going to happen, the next couple days should determine the matter.
The Daily Herald speculates that talks between the Cubs and Maddux are perhaps more intensive than in days past:
MADDUX DECISION MAY BE VERY NEAR
Hendry did not immediately return two phone messages left for him Friday, and perhaps that was a sign that he had entered into a serious phase of negotiations with Boras.
I really have no idea how this is going to shake out, and where Maddux will end up, but the Cubs have the luxury of knowing that, while his addition would be welcomed, they don't have to have Maddux to enter the year as one of the best teams in the National League.
And let's hope that Maddux's decision, whatever it may be, comes soon -- it may have been 96 years since the Cubs won the World Series, but, thanks to the endless media coverage, it has seemed twice as long since they made their initial offer to Maddux.
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Oh, and my top two least-favorite holidays? New Year's and Independence Day. Valentine's Day sucks, but the extra chocolate kisses that all the happy coupled people will bring into the office on Monday will serve as some consolation...
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posted by alex at 03:05 PM | comments (3) |

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2.11.2004 |
FARNSWORTH SETTLES
Hendry and company have kept their record of not going to arbitration with Cubbies intact: according to reports from ESPN Radio, the Cubs have settled with Kyle Farnsworth:
According to ESPN Radio 1000 in Chicago, Farnsworth has agreed to a one-year, $1.4 million deal. He was asking for $1.7 in arbitration while the club was offering $1.1 million.
Farnsworth, who turned 28 in April, collected $500,000 in 2003, when he went 3-2 with a 3.30 ERA in 77 games. In 76 1/3 innings, he allowed only 53 hits while walking 36 and striking out 92.
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posted by alex at 04:50 PM | comments (1) |

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2.10.2004 |
GAY EXPECTATIONS
In yesterday's Hot Stove Heater on ESPN.com, Jim Caple addressed the question, "when will we see an openly gay baseball player?" Despite rumors that Caple was going to come dangerously close to outing a current big leaguer, the article safely stayed away from the question of who is gay, instead focusing on what qualities a player should possess in order to weather the "coming out" storm.
Caple's article has several good points, though many of them are notions that are hashed and re-hashed in every discussion of gay athletes. Chief among these is the sentiment that a player would be better served by being a star:
Many ballplayers wouldn't care if a teammate was gay (many may already suspect a teammate is), the key question is how miserable those other teammates (and opponents and fans) could make the situation. It probably would be easier for a star player to come out, because his batting average or ERA would be sufficient reason for otherwise intolerant teammates and fans to accept him.
I don't know if this is true. A gay baseball star may be used to the spotlight (which would surely help with the media onslaught), but he would also have additional pressures that a lesser player might avoid. A star is still expected to carry his team, and a gay star would be expected to continue to perform at a high level throughout any media circus. An ordinary batting slump would be seen through a queer-tinted lens: maybe he's lost it, maybe the pressure is too much.
A star player is also much more likely to polarize his audience, since as fans we are much more invested in their performance. Think about it: how many fans would really care if Raul Ibanez came out? But how much frenetic booing and cheering would a player like Derek Jeter receive from the stands? The higher a player's profile, the more likely the insults would fly at full throttle.
That said, there is one caveat: the first gay player to come out will have an easier time of it if he is good enough to have a secure starting role. If the 25th man on a team were to come out, it would cause management all sorts of nightmares. The player in question might be easily replaceable, but any move to replace him would draw the ire of the gay community, just as keeping him on the roster might be seen as an owner's sacrifice to the wiles of Political Correctness. A gay Lenny Harris would still hit and field like a straight Lenny Harris, and would deserve to be cut if someone better came along.
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In addition to star power, Caple lists several other characteristics he'd imagine seeing in an openly gay ballplayer.
As soon as a player is good enough, strong enough and confident enough to withstand the controversy and the taunts, as soon as he feels the benefits will outweigh the considerable negatives, as soon as enough teammates won't care about his sexual orientation, and as soon as his employers are ready to back him up and say that the game's clubhouses are ready to be as open as any other office environment in the country.
These are solid qualifications, and Caple is especially right when mentioning the support needed from the front office. As one friend put it, "Jackie Robinson wouldn't have happened without Branch Rickey."
But I don't think the taunts and jeers will be the biggest hurdle. Hate can be a scary adversary, but it can also be repelled. Homophobia is irrational almost by definition, and unimaginative put-downs lose their bite when they don't hold the power of innuendo. Calling a gay man a "cocksucker" isn't an insult; it's an accurate description.
To me, the biggest encumbrance will be fame - specifically, fame within the gay community. A gay ballplayer would make nationwide news, but he would be of much greater stature among queers: he would instantly become one of the most significant gay figures in all of American history. The impact of this cannot be understated. Openly gay sportsmen and women are expected to be spokespeople, and a gay athlete in the national pastime would be acclaimed like no one before him. He would have Visa and Mastercards with his mug on them, he would be expected to pop up at rallies and parades, and cover stories would appear in The Advocate and Out, if not Time and Newsweek.
And with the fame would come criticicm. In this case, not the heckling fans and boorish teammates, but the carping from within the gay community. Martina Navratilova was seen as too "mannish" for some gays' tastes, just as there was a misplaced fear that Greg Louganis' outing would only reinforce stereotypes that all gay men had AIDS. These digs will be vastly outnumbered by the hero chants, of course, but they are the attacks that will have the greatest sting. No one expects to be bashed by the people whose cause you support.
The challenges a gay ballplayer would face may seem obvious at first, starting with the need to gain acceptance from your teammates and fans. But to an out player's surprise, the hardest audience of all may not be in the locker room or stadium. It may be the throng of Gay America that welcomes the player as he steps out the closet door, eager to embrace, herald, and scrutinize him at every turn.
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posted by alex at 11:33 AM | comments (10) |

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2.9.2004 |
TECH DIFFICULTIES
Oooh. For the first time since I've begun hosting this site (last spring), my Web server went down for a couple hours, affecting both access to this site, and my email. Apologies, but it looks like all is back up and running...
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posted by alex at 02:49 PM | comments (0) |

BELTRAN ON FIRE
I've been following the Caribbean World Series through the daily emails and online reports available through Baseball America, and it has been great to see Cubs relief prospect Francis Beltran, representing the Dominican Republic, just dominate the opposition. The D.R. won the series, and Beltran, who had one win and three saves throughout the games, was named series M.V.P. Beltran's currently a long-shot to make the Cubs' major league roster this spring, but you have to think the accolades he's piled up this winter may have raised his profile in the eyes of the team.
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posted by alex at 11:39 AM | comments (2) |

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2.8.2004 |
MONEY MONEY MONEY
Michael Srihari is the purveyor of a fantastic blog that many people have been linking to in recent weeks. DugoutDollars, Michael's blog, lists comprehensive payroll information for every team in baseball, and is worth every link it's getting.
The listings for each team, including the Cubs, is separated into two columns: one for luxury tax computation, and the other for actual payroll. Seeing Damian Miller's name on the Cubs page is not a mistake. Michael kindly informed through email that the cash considerations the Cubs included in the dealing of Miller to the A's ($800,000) is counted as part of the Cubs' luxury tax payroll.
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posted by alex at 06:42 PM | comments (0) |

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2.7.2004 |
LINDSY MCLEAN AND THE 49ers
The current issue of ESPN The Magazine (article available online here with paid subcription) includes an engaging article about Lindsy McLean, who at age 65 recently retired from his tenure as the head trainer for the San Francisco 49ers. Lindsy worked for the 49ers for over 20 years, patching wounds and rehabilitating players who had suffered career-threatening injuries.
Lindsy also had an open secret his entire career: he was gay. From the article, it appears that most of the 49ers' players throughout McLean's time were at least tolerant of his sexuality, though the stories of occasional harrasment are heartbreaking. One player, who Lindsy spent two years bringing back to the game, rewarded the trainer by declaring in a news conference, "I don't want any faggots on my team." Another player repeatedly mock-raped Lindsy in front of staffers and other players. In an astonishing example of understatement, Lindsy says he was "disappointed" no one ever intervened.
I wish I could just write off the intolerant actions of these players as the misbehavings of a bunch of rednecks, but the 49ers aren't a team filled with hateful homophobes. Playing in San Francisco, they're actually known as one of the most progressive organizations in the NFL, having become the first franchise in the league to offer benefits to the partners of gay and lesbian employees.
The article on McLean is a portrait of a man who persevered in an environment that wasn't always amenable to who he was, but who didn't allow his discomfort to interfere with the daily tasks at hand. I feel more than a twinge of sadness on reading his story, though, and can't help but think he would have been happier if he had taken a harder stand against the badgering he endured.
Will and Jack, Brian and Justin, Kyan and Carson, Frodo and Sam. The world of entertainment has embraced gay men, but the locker rooms of the sports world have most certainly not. It is discouraging to see that even the most open-minded of sports teams still suffer from the disease of homophobia. But with every player, coach, official, and, yes, trainer who comes out, we get closer to a time when the sports world has no choice but to begin to accept their gay brethren. People will realize that gays aren't going to suddenly invade the locker rooms and showers and playing fields -- they've been there all along.
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posted by alex at 01:27 PM | comments (2) |

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2.6.2004 |
SAUCY SOSH
A few days ago, there was a bit of controversy over at David Pinto's Baseball Musings site. Pinto posted a snippet from a thread on the Sons of Sam Horn (SoSH) message board thread in which Curt Schilling had some criticism of ESPN.com writer Rob Neyer's work.
There were a thousand interesting things to talk about regarding Schilling's post, including the Internet's capability to bridge the gap between player (Schilling) and fan (SoSH readers), the reaction of an articulate player (Schilling) to an esteemed writer (Neyer), and the acceptance, or lack thereof, of a more analytical approach to baseball among the players themselves.
Unfortunately, discussion has centered around none of these intriguing topics. Rather, one of the moderators of SoSH saw fit to question Pinto's ethics for reposting Schilling's board comments on his own blog. Pinto, who is one of the great baseball bloggers, complied, removing the quote. But now a lot of people are pissed off on both sides of the story.
Jay Jaffe has a good, if vitriolic, take on the situation over at Futility Infielder, and I encourage everyone to check it out.
Copyright laws and the Internet are still developing, but it's pretty clear that Pinto's posting of the quote would fall under "Fair Use". Pinto was both reporting on and criticizing Schilling's post -- two of the primary reasons for the creation of the Fair Use provisions. I asked my lawyer-friend about the whole thing, and she said anyone objecting to Pinto's use of the Schilling quote would be "dressed down" by a judge and laughed out of the courtroom.
SoSH wasn't planning to sue Pinto over this matter, of course. They simply requested that he remove the quote. Regardless, there was no reason for Pinto to do so, and it wouldn't have made David any more or less decent if he had left the quote up. Baseball blogs are mostly used to report and comment on information that appears in the news -- or in this case, an interesting baseball happening in a couple-week span where news is sparce.
The good news is that a matter of major significance to bloggers -- the daily quoting and referencing of source materials -- is being commented on with a good deal of intelligent thought. But to my personal dismay, some of the more interesting discussions regarding Schilling's posts have been relegated to the sidelines, thanks to an undue attack on a well-respected writer's ethics.
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posted by alex at 06:58 PM | comments (1) |

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2.3.2004 |
MADDUX TALKS
Lots of chatter regarding Greg Maddux today in both the Chicago papers and the news wires. No commentary, just passing on some tid-bits.
Mike Kiley reports in the Sun-Times:
Cubs general manager Jim Hendry planned to have a more substantive discussion Monday night or today with agent Scott Boras about the chances of working out a contract with free-agent pitcher Greg Maddux.
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Since the Cubs submitted an initial offer to Maddux on Jan. 13 -- a two-year deal worth between $10 million and $12 million, depending on incentives -- the only meaningful exchange between the sides has been Boras reiterating that a possible $6 million a year is far too little for someone of Maddux's stature.
Teddy Greenstein of the Trib adds that Scott Boras, Maddux's agent, is trying to sell the Cubs on Maddux's role as mentor to the Cubs' young staff:
Boras is trying to sell Hendry on the fact that Maddux is not only a consistent winner who has won 15 to 20 games every season since 1988. He is emphasizing Maddux's value as a teacher, pointing to improvements by former teammates Mike Hampton, Kevin Millwood and Damian Moss, among others.
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"He's the greatest teacher in the major leagues, and he has tenure," Boras said of Maddux. "If he wrote a book on pitching, it would win a Pulitzer Prize."
ESPN's Jim Baker has some great and, as always, humorous commentary on the situation, noting how Boras appears to be once again trying to get a team to bid against only itself when pursuing his clients. It worked for A-Rod, and almost worked for I-Rod, but so far it doesn't appear to be working with the Cubs. You can find Baker's article here, but you need a subscription to ESPN Insider to read it (which is why I'm not quoting it).
The Cubs may not be alone in their pursuit of Maddux for long, though. It appears the Dodgers, with new ownership and supposedly an interest in finally spending some dough, have entered the mix:
The Dodgers have expressed interest in free agent Greg Maddux, with pitching coach Jim Colborn speaking with the future Hall of Famer and manager Jim Tracy talking to the right-hander's brother.
The conversations were confirmed Tuesday by a baseball source who spoke on the condition of anonymity.
For those hoping for Maddux in Chi-town, this puts at least a small damper on the Cubs' chances. Dodger, not Cubbie, blue could fit Greg well. The next week or so will be pretty telling.
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posted by alex at 08:41 PM | comments (0) |

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2.2.2004 |
I LIVE FOR THIS
Yesterday during the Super Bowl, MLB began their ad campaign for the coming baseball season. The commercial (available on MLB.com's home page) features Derek Jeter and Josh Beckett reliving Game Six of the World Series. The pair are exchanging jibes in someone's living room, with A-Rod and "Balcony Girl" (who was that?) in the background. Jeter slams a plastic ball against the living room wall, a wishful home run. Staying with a theme that premiered during the 2003 playoffs, Derek ends the commercial with the pronouncement, "I live for this".
I love this campaign. I thought it was great during the playoffs, and I think it is worth carrying over into the new season. It succinctly states every devoted sports fans' mantra: however irrational, the everyday victories and defeats of our teams affect our lives in ways the non-fan can't rationalize. I've stormed out of work at the end of the day, pissed off after listening to the Cubs blow a late afternoon lead. I'm not a morning person, but I've had days where I've leapt out of bed simply because the Cubs pulled off a great win the night before.
Seeing the players themselves pronounce this somehow makes our obsessions more tenable. The message implicit in seeing Jeter saying he lives for baseball is that we should, too. It's great to see MLB finally providing an entirely positive campaign. No "this time it counts" fiasco, as if it didn't all the years prior. Just a statement of our fealty to the game, simple and true. We live for this.
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posted by alex at 01:16 PM | comments (2) |

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